San Diego Padres vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

August 16, 2026 · Casey Mize vs Tanner Bibee · 78°F

0.5% edge · San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres win

51.4%

Cleveland Guardians win

48.6%

Fair line (home)

+106

Proj. total

8.5

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 4.41)Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.09)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.5

Over

45.8%

Under

46.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	51.4%	-108	-106
Cleveland Guardians	48.6%	-100	+106

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.8	.770	.206	.014	.202	.466	.952	.279	.356	.475	.831
Jake Cronenworth	4.7	.650	.182	.017	.115	.472	.966	.234	.325	.369	.694
Manny Machado	4.6	.654	.180	.002	.229	.396	.961	.256	.323	.465	.788
Ty France	4.5	.715	.164	.016	.137	.263	.912	.254	.320	.404	.724
Jackson Merrill	4.3	.664	.187	.029	.158	.281	.962	.256	.308	.433	.742
Luis Rengifo	4.2	.731	.142	.017	.095	.279	.744	.251	.307	.368	.675
Gavin Sheets	4.1	.575	.168	.007	.153	.345	.889	.241	.311	.412	.723
Xander Bogaerts	4.0	.676	.149	.005	.108	.342	.744	.258	.327	.391	.718
Freddy Fermin	3.9	.600	.134	.005	.098	.290	.792	.233	.296	.356	.652

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.6	.846	.175	.018	.071	.439	.482	.270	.345	.374	.719
Chase DeLauter	4.5	.755	.210	.016	.144	.377	.728	.276	.340	.442	.783
José Ramírez	4.4	.663	.198	.013	.180	.406	.592	.269	.342	.463	.805
Jo Adell	4.3	.571	.154	.014	.209	.226	1.115	.239	.290	.444	.734
Nathaniel Lowe	4.1	.605	.145	.009	.139	.447	1.084	.244	.329	.402	.730
Rhys Hoskins	4.0	.456	.146	.005	.158	.467	1.206	.217	.315	.395	.710
Travis Bazzana	3.9	.539	.165	.021	.083	.425	.996	.232	.321	.363	.684
Austin Hedges	3.8	.536	.119	.007	.096	.279	.944	.216	.280	.337	.617
Brayan Rocchio	3.7	.585	.148	.019	.074	.285	.672	.246	.314	.367	.681

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections