Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

August 28, 2026 · Michael Wacha vs Tanner Bibee · 73°F

0.2% edge · Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals win

45.1%

Cleveland Guardians win

54.9%

Fair line (home)

-122

Proj. total

9.32

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 4.54)Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.79)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

9.32

Over

60.8%

Under

39.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	45.1%	+118	+122
Cleveland Guardians	54.9%	-128	-122

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Michael Wacha RHP · Kansas City Royals	5.5	3.9	6.4	1.8	2.9
Tanner Bibee RHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.3	4.3	5.7	1.5	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Michael Wacha4+ 55%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Tanner Bibee4+ 64%6+ 27%8+ 7%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.8	.638	.216	.020	.174	.434	1.296	.241	.314	.420	.734
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.7	.786	.258	.027	.196	.368	.792	.296	.358	.506	.864
Jac Caglianone	4.6	.704	.201	.020	.232	.293	1.091	.273	.327	.494	.821
Salvador Perez	4.5	.683	.168	.007	.198	.188	.900	.251	.297	.435	.732
Vinnie Pasquantino	4.4	.656	.190	.019	.170	.395	.700	.263	.337	.451	.788
Nick Loftin	4.3	.648	.182	.022	.087	.384	.677	.246	.324	.374	.698
Isaac Collins	4.2	.605	.179	.036	.088	.429	.920	.248	.337	.389	.726
Josh Rojas	4.0	.628	.184	.014	.070	.311	.830	.242	.305	.355	.660
Kyle Isbel	3.9	.634	.158	.036	.076	.238	.827	.248	.300	.373	.674

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.7	.972	.202	.023	.075	.441	.367	.303	.372	.415	.787
Chase DeLauter	4.6	.843	.237	.014	.158	.420	.586	.304	.371	.483	.855
José Ramírez	4.5	.758	.217	.015	.190	.418	.446	.295	.366	.500	.866
Jo Adell	4.3	.654	.194	.016	.227	.243	.931	.271	.323	.495	.818
Nathaniel Lowe	4.2	.729	.179	.011	.148	.437	.867	.282	.360	.453	.814
Travis Bazzana	4.1	.645	.187	.030	.100	.438	.861	.263	.348	.412	.760
Patrick Bailey	4.0	.656	.145	.023	.095	.291	.920	.247	.306	.375	.681
Petey Halpin	3.9	.643	.158	.035	.099	.229	.845	.256	.304	.399	.702
Brayan Rocchio	3.8	.665	.166	.024	.086	.259	.535	.271	.331	.408	.739

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections