San Francisco Giants vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

August 20, 2026 · Landen Roupp vs Gavin Williams · 76°F

8.5% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants win

43.5%

Cleveland Guardians win

56.5%

Fair line (home)

-130

Proj. total

8.07

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 3.86)Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.21)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.07

Over

49.3%

Under

38.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	43.5%	+180	+130
Cleveland Guardians	56.5%	-198	-130

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Landen Roupp RHP · San Francisco Giants	5.0	4.1	5.1	2.4	2.2
Gavin Williams RHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.5	5.9	5.0	2.1	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Landen Roupp4+ 60%6+ 23%8+ 5%

Gavin Williams4+ 86%6+ 55%8+ 22%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Drew Gilbert	4.7	.665	.177	.032	.111	.441	1.023	.232	.314	.368	.682
Rafael Devers	4.6	.557	.186	.008	.194	.570	1.347	.234	.334	.429	.763
Willy Adames	4.5	.541	.165	.012	.158	.491	1.339	.219	.308	.385	.693
Bryce Eldridge	4.4	.557	.167	.004	.161	.474	1.432	.227	.314	.395	.709
Jung Hoo Lee	4.3	.760	.193	.041	.076	.310	.592	.270	.329	.397	.726
Osleivis Basabe	4.2	.684	.169	.012	.080	.249	.833	.241	.291	.351	.642
Turner Hill	4.1	.672	.166	.038	.047	.371	.673	.251	.327	.355	.682
Drew Cavanaugh	4.0	.531	.140	.008	.078	.408	1.289	.215	.306	.325	.631
Christian Koss	3.9	.613	.149	.012	.063	.185	.999	.230	.276	.330	.605

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.7	.903	.194	.021	.052	.577	.407	.289	.382	.386	.768
Travis Bazzana	4.5	.661	.194	.033	.080	.599	1.004	.249	.356	.377	.733
José Ramírez	4.4	.714	.211	.016	.139	.548	.491	.281	.375	.452	.827
Nathaniel Lowe	4.3	.677	.179	.008	.111	.567	.950	.261	.362	.402	.764
Angel Genao	4.2	.774	.191	.023	.070	.388	.722	.278	.349	.395	.744
Angel Martínez	4.1	.650	.197	.017	.092	.249	.834	.250	.304	.383	.687
Patrick Bailey	4.0	.614	.137	.022	.068	.362	.977	.232	.305	.338	.643
Petey Halpin	3.9	.607	.148	.037	.070	.284	.886	.241	.301	.361	.662
Brayan Rocchio	3.8	.614	.163	.026	.065	.339	.569	.257	.334	.379	.713

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections