Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

August 29, 2026 · Daniel Lynch IV vs Foster Griffin · 70°F

0.7% edge · Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals win

41.7%

Cleveland Guardians win

58.3%

Fair line (home)

-140

Proj. total

8.64

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 4.02)Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.63)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.64

Over

47.0%

Under

44.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	41.7%	+139	+140
Cleveland Guardians	58.3%	-151	-140

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Daniel Lynch IV LHP · Kansas City Royals	2.1	1.2	2.4	0.7	1.0
Foster Griffin LHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.4	5.1	5.6	1.2	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Daniel Lynch IV4+ 3%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Foster Griffin4+ 77%6+ 41%8+ 13%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Kansas City Royals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	4.7	.637	.213	.021	.146	.374	1.326	.236	.301	.396	.697
Bobby Witt Jr.	4.6	.807	.258	.031	.171	.328	.811	.299	.356	.496	.852
Jac Caglianone	4.5	.709	.202	.023	.196	.271	1.086	.270	.323	.471	.794
Salvador Perez	4.4	.690	.168	.008	.166	.170	.927	.249	.292	.413	.705
Nick Loftin	4.3	.661	.196	.025	.077	.355	.696	.247	.320	.370	.690
Tyler Tolbert	4.2	.684	.174	.013	.050	.229	1.025	.236	.287	.326	.613
Isaac Collins	4.1	.593	.181	.025	.070	.381	.929	.240	.325	.361	.686
Matthew Lugo	4.0	.559	.184	.033	.107	.175	1.162	.236	.277	.388	.666
Luke Maile	3.8	.529	.147	.009	.065	.297	1.132	.215	.289	.318	.607

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.7	.933	.197	.019	.064	.532	.372	.296	.382	.400	.782
Chase DeLauter	4.5	.832	.236	.012	.143	.500	.595	.304	.384	.475	.859
José Ramírez	4.4	.737	.216	.012	.165	.488	.473	.289	.373	.477	.850
Jo Adell	4.3	.624	.186	.011	.196	.296	.944	.258	.324	.460	.784
Angel Martínez	4.2	.690	.206	.015	.116	.230	.795	.262	.313	.410	.723
David Fry	4.1	.543	.154	.009	.138	.429	.997	.233	.325	.395	.720
Angel Genao	4.0	.751	.191	.017	.075	.327	.643	.284	.348	.407	.755
Austin Hedges	3.9	.591	.125	.006	.091	.357	.763	.232	.310	.349	.660
Brayan Rocchio	3.8	.635	.168	.021	.080	.297	.564	.265	.337	.397	.733

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections