Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

September 1, 2026 · Spencer Miles vs Gavin Williams · 88°F

8.7% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

46.9%

Cleveland Guardians win

53.1%

Fair line (home)

-113

Proj. total

8.94

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.46)Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.49)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.94

Over

49.4%

Under

42.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	46.9%	+157	+113
Cleveland Guardians	53.1%	-171	-113

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Spencer Miles RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	2.3	1.8	2.4	0.8	0.9
Gavin Williams RHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.3	4.8	5.4	2.1	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Spencer Miles4+ 10%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Gavin Williams4+ 72%6+ 35%8+ 10%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.8	.803	.163	.015	.044	.545	1.293	.240	.329	.316	.645
Alejandro Kirk	4.7	.794	.165	.006	.151	.563	.722	.269	.361	.421	.782
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.6	.767	.206	.003	.190	.576	.765	.291	.385	.485	.870
George Springer	4.5	.655	.159	.015	.180	.473	1.013	.252	.337	.433	.770
Nathan Lukes	4.4	.779	.184	.012	.104	.354	.795	.268	.332	.397	.729
Kazuma Okamoto	4.3	.540	.158	.004	.200	.390	1.199	.233	.309	.430	.739
Andrés Giménez	4.2	.667	.164	.011	.101	.239	.893	.244	.303	.370	.673
Ernie Clement	4.1	.774	.202	.015	.083	.185	.492	.277	.314	.401	.715
Myles Straw	4.0	.633	.151	.018	.042	.332	.851	.234	.302	.321	.622

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.6	.927	.192	.022	.067	.483	.446	.293	.371	.399	.770
Chase DeLauter	4.5	.809	.224	.016	.156	.434	.674	.296	.367	.474	.841
José Ramírez	4.4	.701	.209	.013	.177	.452	.539	.280	.358	.475	.833
Jo Adell	4.3	.600	.183	.014	.208	.254	1.053	.253	.309	.463	.771
Nathaniel Lowe	4.2	.678	.168	.008	.129	.464	.978	.265	.350	.419	.769
Angel Martínez	4.1	.654	.191	.020	.118	.200	.862	.255	.300	.407	.707
Travis Bazzana	4.0	.578	.169	.031	.092	.449	.931	.248	.340	.393	.734
Patrick Bailey	3.9	.588	.136	.020	.086	.289	.985	.233	.294	.355	.649
Brayan Rocchio	3.8	.619	.162	.023	.087	.269	.614	.260	.324	.397	.721

Data notes: game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections