Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

September 2, 2026 · Dylan Cease vs Joey Cantillo · 93°F

3.4% edge · Cleveland Guardians

Toronto Blue Jays win

51.2%

Cleveland Guardians win

48.8%

Fair line (home)

+105

Proj. total

8.77

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.59)Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.17)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.77

Over

56.0%

Under

44.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	51.2%	-126	-105
Cleveland Guardians	48.8%	+116	+105

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Dylan Cease RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	5.4	6.1	5.0	2.4	2.3
Joey Cantillo LHP · Cleveland Guardians	4.7	3.9	4.9	2.1	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Dylan Cease4+ 88%6+ 60%8+ 26%

Joey Cantillo4+ 56%6+ 18%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.9	.806	.165	.014	.045	.591	1.214	.241	.336	.318	.654
George Springer	4.8	.684	.163	.018	.191	.548	.991	.253	.346	.437	.783
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.7	.767	.209	.003	.196	.607	.711	.293	.391	.493	.884
Alejandro Kirk	4.6	.772	.158	.004	.138	.578	.643	.271	.368	.418	.787
Kazuma Okamoto	4.5	.569	.167	.004	.202	.431	1.159	.237	.318	.432	.751
Nathan Lukes	4.3	.769	.186	.013	.096	.372	.723	.270	.337	.396	.733
Ernie Clement	4.3	.817	.203	.016	.089	.208	.461	.280	.320	.406	.726
Andrés Giménez	4.1	.661	.167	.011	.095	.257	.831	.247	.310	.372	.682
Myles Straw	4.0	.650	.142	.017	.043	.362	.797	.235	.307	.319	.626

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.6	.861	.187	.016	.070	.550	.597	.281	.371	.388	.759
Chase DeLauter	4.5	.724	.199	.013	.149	.501	.887	.273	.356	.442	.798
José Ramírez	4.4	.637	.198	.013	.174	.504	.700	.265	.354	.459	.812
Jo Adell	4.3	.542	.157	.013	.206	.280	1.316	.232	.293	.435	.728
Nathaniel Lowe	4.2	.597	.147	.007	.135	.505	1.200	.242	.337	.396	.733
Angel Martínez	4.1	.577	.172	.016	.118	.219	1.080	.231	.280	.377	.657
Travis Bazzana	4.0	.530	.152	.026	.086	.473	1.123	.230	.328	.364	.692
Patrick Bailey	3.9	.542	.113	.021	.088	.311	1.175	.217	.284	.336	.621
Angel Genao	3.7	.642	.156	.018	.075	.307	.852	.262	.327	.385	.712

Data notes: game-time temp 93F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections