Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

September 5, 2026 · Framber Valdez vs Parker Messick · 72°F

5.8% edge · Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers win

47.0%

Cleveland Guardians win

53.0%

Fair line (home)

-113

Proj. total

7.68

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Detroit Tigers (mean 3.84)Cleveland Guardians (mean 3.84)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.68

Over

45.8%

Under

42.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Detroit Tigers	47.0%	+138	+113
Cleveland Guardians	53.0%	-150	-113

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Framber Valdez LHP · Detroit Tigers	5.6	4.1	5.7	1.8	2.3
Parker Messick LHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.5	5.6	5.2	1.6	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Framber Valdez4+ 61%6+ 24%8+ 5%

Parker Messick4+ 82%6+ 49%8+ 19%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gleyber Torres	4.7	.764	.169	.004	.112	.536	.892	.252	.342	.376	.718
Hao-Yu Lee	4.6	.710	.181	.023	.120	.304	1.087	.242	.299	.379	.679
Riley Greene	4.5	.641	.188	.011	.168	.434	1.315	.250	.328	.427	.754
Dillon Dingler	4.4	.647	.176	.014	.149	.263	1.071	.243	.301	.403	.704
Ben Malgeri	4.3	.634	.173	.025	.102	.323	1.214	.239	.304	.374	.678
Spencer Torkelson	4.2	.480	.162	.003	.151	.445	1.255	.216	.308	.384	.692
John Peck	4.1	.679	.167	.019	.085	.176	1.098	.246	.285	.365	.649
Zach McKinstry	4.0	.554	.143	.042	.065	.355	.836	.226	.303	.345	.648
Javier Báez	3.8	.607	.153	.014	.082	.138	.910	.234	.271	.350	.621

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.6	.924	.188	.020	.044	.492	.388	.291	.373	.381	.754
Angel Martínez	4.5	.732	.225	.013	.096	.212	.871	.256	.304	.386	.690
José Ramírez	4.3	.712	.221	.009	.122	.402	.507	.273	.347	.428	.775
Jo Adell	4.2	.621	.190	.012	.154	.271	.967	.251	.313	.425	.739
David Fry	4.1	.552	.161	.009	.113	.403	1.036	.228	.314	.369	.683
Angel Genao	4.0	.746	.194	.014	.058	.284	.706	.273	.331	.380	.711
Petey Halpin	3.9	.614	.157	.039	.071	.249	.896	.242	.295	.365	.660
Austin Hedges	3.8	.562	.119	.007	.071	.316	.790	.220	.293	.321	.614
Brayan Rocchio	3.7	.602	.161	.016	.057	.247	.572	.248	.312	.356	.669

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections