Toronto Blue Jays vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

September 3, 2026 · José Soriano vs Tanner Bibee · 73°F

2.6% edge · Cleveland Guardians

Toronto Blue Jays win

46.7%

Cleveland Guardians win

53.3%

Fair line (home)

-114

Proj. total

8.62

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.26)Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.36)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.62

Over

46.7%

Under

45.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	46.7%	-101	+114
Cleveland Guardians	53.3%	-107	-114

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
José Soriano RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	5.0	4.1	5.3	2.6	2.3
Tanner Bibee RHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.4	4.2	5.7	1.6	2.4

Strikeout ladder

José Soriano4+ 61%6+ 23%8+ 5%

Tanner Bibee4+ 63%6+ 25%8+ 6%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.8	.827	.172	.013	.047	.468	1.095	.247	.325	.326	.651
Nathan Lukes	4.7	.855	.201	.014	.107	.315	.712	.272	.327	.399	.726
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.6	.792	.204	.004	.198	.475	.631	.296	.376	.495	.871
Jesús Sánchez	4.5	.640	.204	.011	.171	.342	1.041	.252	.316	.433	.749
Sean Keys	4.4	.543	.154	.012	.183	.363	1.192	.228	.304	.413	.718
Josh Smith	4.3	.645	.171	.016	.099	.385	.849	.246	.327	.378	.706
Andrés Giménez	4.1	.681	.170	.012	.093	.215	.763	.251	.309	.374	.683
Ernie Clement	4.0	.770	.204	.014	.085	.161	.406	.279	.313	.406	.719
Brandon Valenzuela	3.9	.518	.133	.004	.130	.295	1.038	.219	.283	.366	.649

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.7	.913	.186	.021	.051	.579	.449	.287	.380	.380	.760
Chase DeLauter	4.6	.812	.224	.014	.115	.514	.697	.288	.372	.436	.807
José Ramírez	4.5	.717	.213	.014	.135	.526	.553	.276	.366	.441	.807
Jo Adell	4.4	.596	.183	.014	.163	.304	1.096	.240	.306	.416	.722
Nathaniel Lowe	4.3	.662	.171	.009	.109	.541	1.020	.258	.357	.398	.755
Angel Genao	4.2	.765	.182	.022	.064	.355	.788	.274	.341	.385	.726
Travis Bazzana	4.0	.587	.174	.029	.072	.516	.976	.246	.349	.374	.723
Austin Hedges	4.0	.592	.123	.007	.074	.380	.894	.225	.306	.326	.633
Brayan Rocchio	3.8	.622	.159	.026	.064	.329	.639	.254	.330	.371	.701

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections