Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

September 4, 2026 · Andrew Sears vs Foster Griffin · 75°F

3.5% edge · Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers win

47.1%

Cleveland Guardians win

52.9%

Fair line (home)

-112

Proj. total

8.13

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Detroit Tigers (mean 4.04)Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.10)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.13

Over

43.0%

Under

49.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Detroit Tigers	47.1%	+125	+112
Cleveland Guardians	52.9%	-135	-112

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Andrew Sears LHP · Detroit Tigers	3.3	2.2	3.3	1.1	1.4
Foster Griffin LHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.4	4.9	5.5	1.5	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Andrew Sears4+ 18%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Foster Griffin4+ 73%6+ 36%8+ 11%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Gleyber Torres	4.8	.786	.177	.004	.116	.498	.892	.257	.340	.383	.723
Hao-Yu Lee	4.6	.743	.188	.024	.123	.286	1.060	.250	.305	.390	.695
Kevin McGonigle	4.5	.745	.189	.025	.127	.473	.673	.270	.351	.424	.774
Eduardo Valencia	4.4	.678	.173	.013	.176	.234	1.077	.251	.298	.426	.724
Spencer Torkelson	4.3	.509	.172	.004	.166	.423	1.277	.221	.307	.397	.705
Max Clark	4.2	.672	.154	.040	.097	.344	.874	.251	.320	.388	.708
Ben Malgeri	4.1	.627	.166	.024	.104	.286	1.157	.244	.306	.384	.690
John Peck	4.0	.691	.171	.017	.079	.151	1.054	.251	.286	.367	.654
Zach McKinstry	3.9	.577	.134	.046	.069	.323	.788	.236	.308	.359	.667

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.6	.865	.178	.019	.059	.509	.409	.278	.364	.376	.741
Chase DeLauter	4.5	.765	.214	.024	.131	.467	.652	.285	.364	.450	.814
José Ramírez	4.4	.678	.203	.007	.149	.436	.516	.267	.347	.439	.785
Jo Adell	4.3	.589	.170	.012	.192	.276	.994	.247	.308	.444	.752
Angel Martínez	4.2	.646	.184	.012	.117	.213	.829	.248	.299	.392	.691
David Fry	4.0	.499	.152	.006	.128	.412	1.014	.220	.310	.373	.683
Angel Genao	3.9	.697	.171	.013	.074	.299	.690	.266	.328	.383	.711
Austin Hedges	3.8	.534	.120	.004	.087	.328	.810	.216	.292	.329	.622
Brayan Rocchio	3.7	.580	.154	.015	.070	.262	.567	.243	.311	.360	.671

Data notes: away starter Andrew Sears: only 11 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Andrew Sears: only 17 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections