Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

September 14, 2026 · Sean Newcomb vs Gavin Williams · 67°F

4.0% edge · Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox win

44.7%

Cleveland Guardians win

55.3%

Fair line (home)

-124

Proj. total

8.25

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.00)Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.25)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.25

Over

51.2%

Under

36.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	44.7%	+141	+124
Cleveland Guardians	55.3%	-153	-124

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Sean Newcomb LHP · Chicago White Sox	2.1	1.8	2.1	0.9	0.8
Gavin Williams RHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.3	6.5	4.6	2.4	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Sean Newcomb4+ 8%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Gavin Williams4+ 90%6+ 64%8+ 32%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.8	.792	.195	.021	.068	.478	.974	.257	.352	.362	.715
Kyle Teel	4.7	.673	.152	.007	.125	.503	1.445	.231	.320	.361	.681
Miguel Vargas	4.6	.562	.193	.012	.146	.613	1.023	.233	.343	.400	.742
Munetaka Murakami	4.5	.421	.108	.003	.214	.679	1.649	.198	.325	.398	.723
Andrew Benintendi	4.4	.647	.159	.011	.110	.411	1.044	.235	.311	.365	.677
Tristan Peters	4.3	.621	.175	.021	.088	.370	1.003	.235	.308	.359	.667
Colson Montgomery	4.2	.434	.121	.006	.168	.374	1.493	.196	.280	.368	.648
Chase Meidroth	4.0	.643	.138	.003	.067	.461	.922	.241	.336	.339	.675
Braden Montgomery	3.9	.534	.141	.026	.074	.381	1.122	.221	.304	.340	.644

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.6	.862	.197	.019	.048	.568	.464	.279	.373	.373	.746
José Ramírez	4.5	.665	.213	.011	.144	.501	.581	.260	.349	.428	.778
Chase DeLauter	4.4	.751	.213	.029	.119	.508	.670	.287	.372	.449	.821
Jo Adell	4.3	.585	.176	.012	.185	.303	1.059	.244	.312	.437	.749
Travis Bazzana	4.2	.591	.179	.033	.083	.525	.958	.244	.348	.381	.729
Angel Martínez	4.1	.613	.180	.018	.111	.227	.886	.242	.294	.386	.680
Nathaniel Lowe	4.0	.595	.150	.009	.108	.500	.938	.249	.347	.391	.738
Patrick Bailey	3.9	.560	.136	.018	.075	.335	1.002	.225	.299	.339	.638
Brayan Rocchio	3.8	.581	.165	.017	.074	.299	.622	.247	.320	.371	.692

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections