Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

September 6, 2026 · Jackson Jobe vs Gavin Williams · 73°F

6.6% edge · Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers win

45.8%

Cleveland Guardians win

54.3%

Fair line (home)

-119

Proj. total

7.97

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Detroit Tigers (mean 3.89)Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.08)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.97

Over

48.8%

Under

39.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Detroit Tigers	45.8%	+150	+119
Cleveland Guardians	54.3%	-164	-119

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jackson Jobe RHP · Detroit Tigers	4.7	3.4	4.8	1.9	2.2
Gavin Williams RHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.4	6.4	4.9	2.0	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Jackson Jobe4+ 45%6+ 12%8+ 2%

Gavin Williams4+ 90%6+ 64%8+ 31%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Detroit Tigers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.7	.716	.188	.027	.121	.624	.831	.258	.360	.406	.766
Hao-Yu Lee	4.6	.679	.178	.024	.120	.348	1.222	.236	.301	.375	.675
Colt Keith	4.5	.699	.161	.028	.121	.418	1.073	.248	.323	.391	.714
Riley Greene	4.4	.590	.171	.013	.164	.480	1.402	.241	.329	.417	.746
Dillon Dingler	4.3	.588	.165	.012	.154	.292	1.199	.232	.296	.397	.693
Brett Callahan	4.2	.596	.132	.029	.100	.277	1.269	.221	.282	.347	.630
Ben Malgeri	4.1	.548	.158	.022	.096	.347	1.313	.223	.296	.355	.651
Max Clark	4.0	.571	.131	.033	.092	.386	.954	.232	.312	.365	.677
John Peck	3.9	.601	.151	.016	.072	.193	1.179	.231	.275	.341	.616

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.6	.866	.188	.017	.061	.540	.376	.282	.371	.382	.753
Travis Bazzana	4.5	.652	.189	.032	.100	.533	.940	.250	.347	.392	.739
Jo Adell	4.4	.593	.182	.013	.204	.305	.967	.249	.314	.454	.768
Nathaniel Lowe	4.3	.658	.165	.008	.136	.527	.891	.260	.356	.419	.775
Angel Martínez	4.2	.642	.186	.017	.111	.232	.783	.247	.299	.390	.689
Angel Genao	4.0	.728	.185	.017	.077	.348	.650	.274	.342	.396	.738
Patrick Bailey	4.0	.593	.133	.019	.087	.355	.925	.233	.307	.354	.661
Petey Halpin	3.8	.567	.144	.035	.083	.269	.851	.234	.293	.365	.658
Brayan Rocchio	3.7	.599	.149	.022	.069	.291	.540	.249	.319	.368	.687

Data notes: away starter Jackson Jobe: only 66 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Jackson Jobe: only 38 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections