Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

September 15, 2026 · Chris Murphy vs Foster Griffin · 70°F

5.9% edge · Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox win

48.1%

Cleveland Guardians win

51.9%

Fair line (home)

-108

Proj. total

7.93

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 3.98)Cleveland Guardians (mean 3.95)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.93

Over

30.8%

Under

59.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	48.1%	+132	+108
Cleveland Guardians	51.9%	-144	-108

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Chris Murphy LHP · Chicago White Sox	2.1	1.8	2.0	1.0	0.8
Foster Griffin LHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.4	5.1	5.3	1.6	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Chris Murphy4+ 9%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Foster Griffin4+ 77%6+ 40%8+ 13%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chase Meidroth	4.7	.823	.179	.004	.083	.441	.955	.256	.334	.359	.693
Randal Grichuk	4.6	.674	.223	.012	.176	.236	1.047	.249	.294	.427	.721
Miguel Vargas	4.5	.592	.196	.011	.165	.503	.894	.243	.335	.422	.757
Munetaka Murakami	4.4	.457	.117	.002	.227	.583	1.515	.211	.322	.422	.745
Brenton Doyle	4.3	.639	.150	.011	.115	.253	1.293	.226	.274	.353	.627
Sam Antonacci	4.2	.736	.161	.026	.066	.331	.739	.266	.351	.377	.728
Jake Rogers	4.1	.486	.129	.020	.122	.359	1.225	.205	.281	.350	.631
Luisangel Acuña	4.0	.740	.157	.013	.045	.189	.768	.254	.295	.338	.633
Tristan Peters	3.9	.584	.168	.023	.088	.273	.813	.243	.305	.377	.682

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.6	.835	.167	.018	.060	.581	.457	.271	.368	.367	.735
José Ramírez	4.5	.657	.202	.011	.158	.504	.599	.261	.351	.439	.790
Jo Adell	4.4	.560	.163	.013	.191	.322	1.141	.233	.305	.425	.730
Travis Bazzana	4.3	.575	.167	.025	.097	.549	.969	.236	.344	.374	.718
Nathaniel Lowe	4.2	.591	.141	.007	.130	.532	.992	.241	.343	.392	.735
Angel Genao	4.1	.688	.162	.013	.072	.344	.766	.254	.324	.364	.688
Patrick Bailey	4.0	.554	.124	.013	.083	.349	1.071	.217	.293	.328	.621
Petey Halpin	3.8	.541	.135	.032	.083	.282	.949	.224	.286	.350	.637
Brayan Rocchio	3.7	.558	.141	.015	.078	.294	.657	.236	.311	.356	.667

Data notes: away starter Chris Murphy: only 71 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Chris Murphy: only 69 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections