Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

September 16, 2026 · Anthony Kay vs Parker Messick · 75°F

2.5% edge · Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox win

43.7%

Cleveland Guardians win

56.3%

Fair line (home)

-129

Proj. total

7.87

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 3.74)Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.12)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.87

Over

47.6%

Under

41.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	43.7%	+138	+129
Cleveland Guardians	56.3%	-150	-129

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Anthony Kay LHP · Chicago White Sox	4.9	3.4	5.1	1.7	2.2
Parker Messick LHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.5	5.7	5.1	1.7	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Anthony Kay4+ 44%6+ 12%8+ 2%

Parker Messick4+ 84%6+ 52%8+ 21%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chase Meidroth	4.7	.760	.160	.003	.088	.466	.987	.243	.327	.346	.673
Randal Grichuk	4.6	.650	.203	.013	.175	.255	1.111	.243	.291	.418	.709
Miguel Vargas	4.5	.569	.189	.010	.160	.535	.925	.239	.338	.416	.754
Tommy Pham	4.4	.636	.154	.018	.104	.396	1.182	.231	.304	.358	.662
Kyle Teel	4.3	.639	.144	.005	.126	.424	1.250	.240	.323	.380	.704
Brenton Doyle	4.2	.569	.135	.009	.113	.255	1.325	.212	.264	.338	.602
Colson Montgomery	4.1	.422	.122	.005	.177	.336	1.431	.199	.277	.380	.658
Luisangel Acuña	3.9	.695	.143	.011	.051	.208	.805	.243	.288	.329	.617
Tristan Peters	3.8	.553	.165	.021	.085	.292	.830	.237	.303	.370	.673

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.6	.913	.186	.016	.059	.520	.401	.291	.378	.389	.767
José Ramírez	4.5	.722	.206	.008	.157	.426	.514	.273	.350	.445	.795
Jo Adell	4.4	.604	.175	.011	.197	.286	1.018	.248	.316	.447	.762
Travis Bazzana	4.3	.631	.182	.029	.100	.512	.881	.255	.356	.402	.757
David Fry	4.2	.528	.144	.009	.139	.426	1.034	.223	.315	.380	.696
Angel Genao	4.1	.734	.176	.010	.074	.315	.676	.268	.333	.381	.714
Austin Hedges	4.0	.573	.121	.006	.093	.356	.820	.223	.302	.339	.641
Petey Halpin	3.8	.589	.139	.035	.075	.261	.861	.236	.295	.359	.653
Brayan Rocchio	3.7	.597	.161	.016	.077	.258	.567	.253	.323	.379	.702

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections