Athletics vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

September 20, 2026 · Jack Perkins vs Gavin Williams · 67°F

3.8% edge · Athletics

Athletics win

35.6%

Cleveland Guardians win

64.4%

Fair line (home)

-181

Proj. total

8.42

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Athletics (mean 3.62)Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.80)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.42

Over

53.5%

Under

35.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Athletics	35.6%	+208	+181
Cleveland Guardians	64.4%	-230	-181

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jack Perkins RHP · Athletics	3.1	2.6	3.4	1.6	1.6
Gavin Williams RHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.5	6.8	4.7	1.9	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Jack Perkins4+ 27%6+ 4%8+ 0%

Gavin Williams4+ 93%6+ 70%8+ 37%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.7	.681	.159	.025	.119	.393	1.626	.235	.311	.370	.681
Shea Langeliers	4.5	.550	.179	.005	.223	.393	1.277	.233	.305	.442	.747
Lawrence Butler	4.4	.539	.151	.013	.153	.459	1.367	.217	.301	.378	.678
Zack Gelof	4.3	.528	.142	.012	.150	.387	1.431	.213	.290	.371	.661
Donovan Walton	4.2	.595	.155	.011	.105	.419	.873	.230	.316	.361	.677
Tommy White	4.1	.672	.158	.008	.103	.189	.894	.241	.282	.365	.647
Alika Williams	4.0	.604	.171	.013	.074	.255	1.000	.232	.289	.346	.635
Jonah Heim	3.9	.514	.124	.003	.114	.307	.927	.212	.278	.344	.623
Denzel Clarke	3.8	.455	.125	.027	.080	.306	1.438	.201	.275	.324	.599

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.7	.912	.192	.016	.066	.599	.438	.293	.389	.397	.786
José Ramírez	4.6	.724	.212	.010	.174	.527	.548	.279	.368	.467	.836
Chase DeLauter	4.5	.774	.219	.025	.153	.514	.658	.299	.383	.484	.867
Jo Adell	4.4	.620	.178	.011	.201	.319	1.058	.256	.326	.460	.786
Travis Bazzana	4.3	.623	.182	.026	.117	.548	.905	.260	.365	.421	.786
Nathaniel Lowe	4.2	.643	.150	.007	.139	.545	.950	.263	.365	.425	.790
Angel Martínez	4.0	.632	.179	.018	.131	.233	.839	.256	.310	.418	.728
Patrick Bailey	3.9	.585	.129	.015	.091	.374	.991	.234	.313	.357	.671
Angel Genao	3.8	.679	.169	.015	.073	.333	.669	.272	.342	.394	.736

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections