Athletics vs Cleveland Guardians — Prediction & Odds

September 19, 2026 · Jacob Lopez vs Tanner Bibee · 70°F

3.4% edge · Athletics

Athletics win

40.8%

Cleveland Guardians win

59.2%

Fair line (home)

-145

Proj. total

8.94

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Athletics (mean 4.16)Cleveland Guardians (mean 4.78)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.94

Over

58.0%

Under

42.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Athletics	40.8%	+162	+145
Cleveland Guardians	59.2%	-177	-145

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jacob Lopez LHP · Athletics	4.5	3.6	4.7	2.0	2.3
Tanner Bibee RHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.4	4.9	5.4	1.6	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Jacob Lopez4+ 49%6+ 14%8+ 2%

Tanner Bibee4+ 73%6+ 37%8+ 11%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.7	.769	.187	.025	.147	.328	1.406	.261	.325	.418	.743
Jeff McNeil	4.6	.803	.196	.017	.112	.328	.573	.268	.331	.402	.733
Shea Langeliers	4.5	.602	.186	.004	.257	.343	1.033	.255	.318	.489	.806
Lawrence Butler	4.4	.588	.174	.014	.176	.400	1.131	.239	.312	.422	.734
Zack Gelof	4.3	.562	.168	.014	.180	.347	1.206	.236	.304	.424	.728
Donovan Walton	4.2	.630	.155	.015	.108	.366	.723	.241	.317	.375	.693
Carlos Cortes	4.1	.584	.171	.012	.133	.317	.808	.241	.305	.400	.705
Brian Serven	4.0	.492	.129	.007	.110	.281	1.223	.202	.269	.332	.601
Alika Williams	3.9	.608	.175	.016	.074	.227	.796	.244	.297	.363	.660

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	4.7	.900	.186	.019	.072	.571	.425	.290	.382	.399	.781
José Ramírez	4.6	.724	.219	.008	.193	.489	.551	.284	.367	.486	.853
Chase DeLauter	4.4	.767	.213	.024	.156	.519	.630	.297	.383	.484	.867
Jo Adell	4.3	.592	.172	.011	.226	.318	1.045	.254	.323	.475	.798
Angel Martínez	4.2	.660	.199	.014	.134	.233	.865	.256	.307	.415	.722
David Fry	4.1	.526	.152	.006	.158	.449	1.035	.233	.328	.410	.738
Travis Bazzana	4.0	.591	.167	.025	.119	.499	.855	.260	.362	.426	.788
Austin Hedges	3.9	.564	.121	.005	.104	.392	.838	.228	.314	.356	.670
Brayan Rocchio	3.8	.619	.162	.016	.095	.293	.585	.261	.333	.401	.735

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections