San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

July 4, 2026 · Robbie Ray vs Sean Sullivan · 87°F

2.9% edge · San Francisco Giants

San Francisco Giants win

57.5%

Colorado Rockies win

42.5%

Fair line (home)

+135

Proj. total

11.13

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Francisco Giants (mean 6.14)Colorado Rockies (mean 5.00)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

11.13

Over

43.1%

Under

50.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Francisco Giants	57.5%	-126	-135
Colorado Rockies	42.5%	+116	+135

San Francisco Giants — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Heliot Ramos	5.0	.981	.252	.028	.216	.343	.938	.318	.372	.523	.896
Luis Arraez	4.9	1.286	.256	.053	.058	.225	.155	.353	.388	.468	.856
Casey Schmitt	4.8	.906	.235	.023	.227	.259	.768	.309	.355	.522	.877
Rafael Devers	4.7	.747	.258	.014	.262	.500	.952	.307	.387	.564	.951
Jung Hoo Lee	4.6	1.016	.257	.054	.095	.297	.361	.334	.383	.487	.870
Willy Adames	4.5	.717	.233	.016	.209	.431	.888	.291	.363	.512	.875
Bryce Eldridge	4.4	.744	.220	.006	.204	.384	1.044	.296	.363	.508	.872
Victor Bericoto	4.3	.835	.174	.028	.139	.244	.800	.293	.337	.453	.790
Eric Haase	4.2	.686	.169	.012	.164	.244	1.043	.265	.313	.440	.753

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Willi Castro	4.8	.808	.208	.021	.110	.401	1.079	.269	.347	.405	.752
Kyle Karros	4.7	.823	.236	.016	.097	.526	.987	.286	.373	.422	.795
Hunter Goodman	4.5	.640	.220	.026	.277	.340	1.193	.279	.339	.544	.883
Tyler Freeman	4.4	.877	.210	.018	.085	.376	.535	.303	.381	.431	.811
Cole Carrigg	4.3	.793	.165	.051	.098	.297	.921	.278	.336	.419	.755
Jake McCarthy	4.2	.800	.179	.065	.088	.327	.707	.294	.358	.444	.801
Braxton Fulford	4.1	.617	.192	.026	.123	.391	1.076	.261	.340	.427	.768
Ezequiel Tovar	4.0	.673	.219	.020	.130	.246	.944	.279	.328	.453	.781
Troy Johnston	3.9	.714	.191	.017	.097	.298	.756	.288	.352	.433	.785

Data notes: home starter Sean Sullivan: only 22 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Sean Sullivan: only 60 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections