Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

July 17, 2026 · Brady Singer vs Gabriel Hughes · 87°F

1.8% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds win

50.3%

Colorado Rockies win

49.7%

Fair line (home)

+101

Proj. total

11.73

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 6.06)Colorado Rockies (mean 5.67)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

11.73

Over

40.4%

Under

53.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	50.3%	+102	-101
Colorado Rockies	49.7%	-110	+101

Cincinnati Reds — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	5.0	.915	.255	.063	.230	.444	1.146	.320	.385	.555	.940
Sal Stewart	4.9	.901	.275	.005	.226	.432	.834	.315	.379	.530	.910
JJ Bleday	4.8	.710	.248	.019	.244	.544	.915	.287	.370	.526	.896
Spencer Steer	4.7	.772	.233	.019	.195	.429	.868	.288	.361	.490	.851
Eugenio Suárez	4.6	.666	.198	.004	.288	.368	1.218	.277	.345	.533	.878
Tyler Stephenson	4.5	.770	.208	.008	.157	.420	1.046	.284	.356	.456	.812
TJ Friedl	4.4	.804	.176	.023	.129	.398	.719	.290	.368	.446	.814
Edwin Arroyo	4.3	.867	.186	.052	.080	.217	.732	.296	.340	.427	.767
Ke'Bryan Hayes	4.2	.842	.188	.030	.100	.259	.661	.300	.348	.441	.789

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.938	.200	.075	.145	.318	.745	.309	.367	.487	.854
Mickey Moniak	4.7	.747	.209	.059	.279	.254	1.075	.295	.341	.560	.901
Hunter Goodman	4.6	.645	.222	.023	.329	.310	1.173	.290	.346	.587	.933
TJ Rumfield	4.5	.811	.209	.018	.163	.408	.734	.302	.377	.487	.864
Kyle Karros	4.3	.791	.221	.027	.130	.445	.884	.303	.383	.476	.859
Willi Castro	4.3	.741	.177	.028	.123	.351	.948	.282	.360	.441	.802
Troy Johnston	4.2	.766	.209	.018	.124	.310	.770	.296	.361	.460	.821
Tyler Freeman	4.0	.820	.178	.025	.080	.290	.480	.306	.381	.436	.817
Ezequiel Tovar	3.9	.633	.207	.020	.152	.212	.896	.274	.319	.465	.783

Data notes: home starter Gabriel Hughes: only 21 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Gabriel Hughes: only 14 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 87F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections