Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

July 18, 2026 · Rhett Lowder vs Tomoyuki Sugano · 92°F

8.3% edge · Cincinnati Reds

Cincinnati Reds win

59.9%

Colorado Rockies win

40.1%

Fair line (home)

+150

Proj. total

12.33

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cincinnati Reds (mean 6.87)Colorado Rockies (mean 5.46)

O/U line

12.5

Proj. total

12.33

Over

45.3%

Under

54.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cincinnati Reds	59.9%	-111	-150
Colorado Rockies	40.1%	+103	+150

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Elly De La Cruz	5.1	.980	.276	.065	.280	.410	.970	.344	.401	.612	1.013
Sal Stewart	5.0	.952	.297	.004	.279	.388	.706	.335	.391	.585	.977
JJ Bleday	4.9	.779	.257	.022	.295	.482	.770	.309	.381	.580	.960
Spencer Steer	4.8	.838	.256	.017	.238	.383	.734	.311	.374	.542	.916
Eugenio Suárez	4.7	.725	.223	.005	.341	.334	1.078	.303	.362	.598	.960
Noelvi Marte	4.6	.929	.240	.023	.214	.222	.698	.327	.365	.543	.908
Dane Myers	4.5	.925	.210	.010	.155	.296	.828	.317	.369	.486	.856
Jose Trevino	4.3	.888	.225	.006	.149	.195	.476	.308	.343	.474	.817
Edwin Arroyo	4.2	.909	.193	.053	.090	.184	.620	.312	.351	.455	.806

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.949	.204	.080	.133	.344	.743	.310	.370	.483	.853
Mickey Moniak	4.7	.754	.218	.058	.264	.269	1.056	.294	.341	.550	.891
Cole Carrigg	4.6	.845	.177	.084	.128	.358	.907	.295	.358	.469	.827
TJ Rumfield	4.5	.792	.216	.018	.153	.424	.727	.295	.372	.473	.845
Willi Castro	4.4	.753	.183	.030	.126	.385	.961	.280	.360	.440	.800
Troy Johnston	4.3	.810	.225	.020	.123	.341	.764	.305	.370	.469	.839
Edouard Julien	4.2	.662	.169	.020	.137	.596	1.049	.280	.389	.455	.844
Brett Sullivan	4.1	.648	.192	.034	.110	.304	.655	.264	.325	.422	.747
Ezequiel Tovar	4.0	.662	.212	.019	.150	.227	.871	.283	.329	.472	.801

Data notes: game-time temp 92F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections