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1.3% edge · Colorado RockiesCincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds
July 19, 2026 · Hunter Greene vs Ryan Feltner · 96°F
Cincinnati Reds win
59.3%
Colorado Rockies win
40.7%
Fair line (home)
+146
Proj. total
12.01
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Cincinnati Reds (mean 6.69)Colorado Rockies (mean 5.31)
Totals
O/U line
11
Proj. total
12.01
Over
49.3%
Under
42.0%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Reds | 59.3% | -162 | -146 |
| Colorado Rockies | 40.7% | +149 | +146 |
Cincinnati Reds — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | 5.2 | .926 | .255 | .061 | .249 | .490 | 1.138 | .322 | .391 | .565 | .956 |
| Sal Stewart | 5.0 | .905 | .285 | .004 | .246 | .482 | .812 | .318 | .388 | .546 | .934 |
| JJ Bleday | 4.9 | .730 | .258 | .020 | .265 | .596 | .879 | .295 | .383 | .548 | .932 |
| Spencer Steer | 4.8 | .795 | .235 | .018 | .213 | .480 | .849 | .295 | .372 | .507 | .880 |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 4.7 | .832 | .205 | .014 | .209 | .550 | .958 | .305 | .389 | .513 | .902 |
| Eugenio Suárez | 4.6 | .664 | .198 | .004 | .299 | .401 | 1.178 | .282 | .355 | .549 | .904 |
| Tyler Stephenson | 4.5 | .781 | .217 | .007 | .173 | .451 | 1.008 | .295 | .372 | .483 | .854 |
| TJ Friedl | 4.4 | .801 | .182 | .021 | .137 | .407 | .679 | .294 | .373 | .458 | .831 |
| Dane Myers | 4.3 | .829 | .180 | .009 | .127 | .341 | .913 | .295 | .359 | .444 | .803 |
Colorado Rockies — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake McCarthy | 4.8 | .874 | .184 | .071 | .143 | .353 | .915 | .292 | .357 | .465 | .822 |
| Mickey Moniak | 4.7 | .690 | .181 | .057 | .286 | .254 | 1.261 | .277 | .323 | .541 | .864 |
| Hunter Goodman | 4.6 | .583 | .184 | .019 | .340 | .320 | 1.400 | .269 | .328 | .566 | .894 |
| TJ Rumfield | 4.4 | .719 | .194 | .016 | .167 | .427 | .886 | .278 | .358 | .462 | .820 |
| Willi Castro | 4.3 | .682 | .170 | .025 | .129 | .368 | 1.144 | .260 | .342 | .417 | .760 |
| Kyle Karros | 4.2 | .677 | .197 | .024 | .122 | .466 | 1.012 | .275 | .364 | .439 | .803 |
| Troy Johnston | 4.1 | .693 | .193 | .017 | .125 | .320 | .925 | .275 | .345 | .436 | .781 |
| Tyler Freeman | 4.0 | .760 | .171 | .022 | .087 | .312 | .605 | .291 | .370 | .424 | .794 |
| Edouard Julien | 3.9 | .562 | .138 | .015 | .133 | .535 | 1.164 | .254 | .363 | .423 | .786 |
Data notes: away starter Hunter Greene: only 26 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Hunter Greene: only 19 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 96F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections