Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

July 21, 2026 · Carson Palmquist vs Michael Lorenzen · 94°F

3.9% edge · Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals win

55.0%

Colorado Rockies win

45.0%

Fair line (home)

+122

Proj. total

11.95

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 6.44)Colorado Rockies (mean 5.52)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

11.95

Over

34.7%

Under

57.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	55.0%	-109	-122
Colorado Rockies	45.0%	-100	+122

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	5.1	.813	.267	.014	.313	.706	1.187	.322	.420	.604	1.024
Luis García Jr.	5.0	1.017	.276	.037	.253	.257	.583	.335	.372	.570	.941
José Tena	4.9	.967	.272	.042	.134	.345	1.022	.314	.367	.482	.849
CJ Abrams	4.8	.870	.246	.040	.228	.324	.747	.316	.375	.547	.922
Curtis Mead	4.7	.849	.248	.028	.187	.364	.734	.310	.374	.514	.888
Daylen Lile	4.5	.916	.244	.070	.142	.278	.633	.324	.372	.516	.888
Keibert Ruiz	4.5	.902	.234	.005	.157	.193	.417	.308	.345	.478	.823
Nasim Nuñez	4.3	.892	.128	.044	.057	.419	.834	.289	.362	.389	.751
Jacob Young	4.2	.880	.194	.026	.088	.279	.607	.306	.360	.437	.797

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.920	.189	.076	.129	.365	.752	.301	.366	.467	.833
Cole Carrigg	4.7	.836	.184	.065	.125	.376	.932	.284	.353	.446	.799
Hunter Goodman	4.6	.630	.217	.021	.297	.362	1.178	.279	.344	.555	.899
Willi Castro	4.5	.756	.185	.020	.118	.393	.985	.273	.357	.420	.777
TJ Rumfield	4.4	.780	.209	.016	.142	.441	.703	.297	.378	.470	.848
Kyle Karros	4.3	.750	.212	.026	.118	.497	.844	.297	.387	.463	.851
Mickey Moniak	4.2	.649	.178	.058	.228	.256	.936	.288	.338	.541	.879
Troy Johnston	4.0	.741	.210	.020	.107	.347	.721	.297	.369	.453	.822
Ezequiel Tovar	3.9	.651	.216	.020	.139	.232	.869	.279	.326	.462	.788

Data notes: away starter Carson Palmquist: only 20 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Carson Palmquist: only 23 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 94F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections