Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

July 20, 2026 · Andrew Alvarez vs Kyle Freeland · 78°F

0.1% edge · Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals win

54.4%

Colorado Rockies win

45.6%

Fair line (home)

+119

Proj. total

11.25

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 6.00)Colorado Rockies (mean 5.25)

O/U line

Proj. total

11.25

Over

37.2%

Under

56.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	54.4%	-124	-119
Colorado Rockies	45.6%	+114	+119

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	5.0	.845	.276	.016	.314	.579	1.163	.327	.409	.609	1.018
Curtis Mead	4.9	.936	.276	.029	.189	.321	.768	.315	.369	.513	.882
Andrés Chaparro	4.8	.821	.250	.009	.215	.336	.913	.291	.347	.497	.843
CJ Abrams	4.7	.874	.244	.039	.219	.266	.716	.316	.367	.541	.908
Dylan Crews	4.6	.827	.208	.026	.186	.260	.830	.292	.341	.483	.825
Jacob Young	4.5	.945	.207	.031	.089	.244	.646	.303	.349	.431	.780
Harry Ford	4.4	.745	.202	.007	.109	.425	.931	.273	.353	.413	.766
Luis García Jr.	4.3	.888	.232	.028	.206	.181	.484	.333	.364	.556	.920
Nasim Nuñez	4.2	.884	.116	.030	.053	.320	.788	.284	.344	.373	.717

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.948	.195	.080	.103	.372	.706	.303	.367	.455	.822
Kyle Karros	4.7	.846	.244	.031	.101	.546	.892	.298	.387	.446	.832
Cole Carrigg	4.6	.829	.193	.062	.101	.355	.883	.284	.348	.432	.780
Hunter Goodman	4.5	.655	.218	.021	.251	.359	1.097	.281	.346	.530	.876
TJ Rumfield	4.4	.799	.215	.020	.122	.433	.667	.298	.377	.459	.836
Willi Castro	4.3	.743	.193	.019	.091	.380	.901	.277	.358	.410	.769
Braxton Fulford	4.2	.628	.205	.024	.111	.389	1.046	.261	.343	.419	.762
Tyler Freeman	4.1	.813	.184	.027	.062	.330	.443	.301	.379	.419	.798
Ezequiel Tovar	3.9	.663	.225	.020	.127	.236	.833	.281	.329	.456	.785

Data notes: away starter Andrew Alvarez: only 59 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections