Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

July 22, 2026 · Cade Cavalli vs Gabriel Hughes · 80°F

2.9% edge · Colorado Rockies

Washington Nationals win

54.1%

Colorado Rockies win

45.9%

Fair line (home)

+118

Proj. total

11.02

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 5.89)Colorado Rockies (mean 5.13)

Totals

O/U line

11.5

Proj. total

11.02

Over

41.0%

Under

59.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	54.1%	-139	-118
Colorado Rockies	45.9%	+128	+118

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
James Wood	5.0	.812	.272	.016	.274	.669	1.243	.316	.411	.576	.987
Luis García Jr.	4.9	1.036	.279	.033	.217	.235	.617	.334	.368	.546	.914
José Tena	4.8	.949	.252	.039	.121	.318	1.072	.304	.354	.459	.813
CJ Abrams	4.7	.844	.245	.038	.195	.315	.782	.307	.366	.517	.883
Dylan Crews	4.6	.819	.213	.027	.168	.302	.871	.290	.346	.472	.818
Daylen Lile	4.5	.891	.242	.064	.117	.267	.657	.315	.363	.488	.851
Keibert Ruiz	4.4	.890	.228	.004	.136	.188	.438	.304	.341	.459	.800
Jorbit Vivas	4.3	.814	.202	.010	.073	.393	.528	.288	.365	.404	.769
Nasim Nuñez	4.2	.840	.108	.040	.046	.381	.841	.275	.346	.362	.707

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.942	.205	.079	.102	.318	.769	.304	.365	.457	.822
Mickey Moniak	4.7	.749	.212	.062	.215	.243	1.088	.283	.329	.508	.837
Hunter Goodman	4.5	.667	.218	.023	.257	.324	1.196	.279	.340	.528	.868
TJ Rumfield	4.4	.799	.217	.017	.124	.399	.745	.293	.368	.450	.819
Cole Carrigg	4.3	.785	.171	.072	.099	.328	.884	.286	.351	.442	.793
Kyle Karros	4.2	.756	.219	.026	.101	.438	.874	.295	.378	.449	.827
Willi Castro	4.1	.709	.178	.028	.091	.341	.931	.274	.355	.413	.768
Edouard Julien	4.0	.655	.153	.017	.097	.527	1.053	.268	.372	.407	.779
Brett Sullivan	3.9	.636	.186	.029	.086	.269	.634	.260	.318	.399	.717

Data notes: home starter Gabriel Hughes: only 31 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Gabriel Hughes: only 25 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections