Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

July 31, 2026 · Michael Wacha vs Tomoyuki Sugano · 88°F

1.5% edge · Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals win

52.2%

Colorado Rockies win

47.8%

Fair line (home)

+109

Proj. total

12.1

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 6.29)Colorado Rockies (mean 5.81)

O/U line

Proj. total

12.1

Over

50.2%

Under

40.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	52.2%	-107	-109
Colorado Rockies	47.8%	-101	+109

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	5.1	.927	.289	.024	.240	.397	.952	.319	.376	.547	.923
Lane Thomas	5.0	.908	.291	.015	.213	.377	.857	.316	.375	.528	.903
Jac Caglianone	4.8	.931	.251	.034	.286	.297	.880	.334	.382	.596	.979
Salvador Perez	4.7	.920	.240	.004	.271	.181	.636	.320	.357	.557	.914
Michael Massey	4.6	.944	.283	.011	.179	.186	.552	.322	.354	.514	.868
Isaac Collins	4.5	.829	.256	.030	.110	.449	.722	.307	.386	.469	.855
John Rave	4.4	.794	.220	.040	.160	.361	.811	.302	.364	.497	.860
Josh Rojas	4.3	.843	.252	.017	.097	.307	.649	.305	.358	.450	.808
Andrew Velazquez	4.2	.815	.196	.017	.086	.200	.933	.282	.321	.406	.727

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.998	.206	.078	.138	.283	.679	.317	.367	.491	.857
Mickey Moniak	4.7	.801	.220	.066	.268	.234	.973	.306	.346	.567	.913
Hunter Goodman	4.6	.692	.235	.022	.330	.285	1.089	.300	.349	.598	.947
TJ Rumfield	4.5	.844	.225	.021	.161	.373	.649	.309	.375	.495	.870
Kyle Karros	4.4	.821	.243	.032	.124	.412	.787	.312	.383	.486	.869
Tyler Freeman	4.3	.924	.200	.025	.084	.278	.453	.319	.382	.449	.831
Troy Johnston	4.2	.820	.226	.019	.114	.288	.686	.309	.367	.468	.835
Brenton Doyle	4.0	.724	.194	.019	.151	.260	.935	.289	.338	.471	.808
Ezequiel Tovar	3.9	.684	.226	.020	.159	.194	.814	.292	.331	.492	.823

Data notes: game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections