Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

August 3, 2026 · Ian Seymour vs Michael Lorenzen · 89°F

2.0% edge · Colorado Rockies

Tampa Bay Rays win

60.4%

Colorado Rockies win

39.6%

Fair line (home)

+153

Proj. total

11.29

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 6.38)Colorado Rockies (mean 4.91)

O/U line

11.5

Proj. total

11.29

Over

43.4%

Under

56.6%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	60.4%	-176	-153
Colorado Rockies	39.6%	+161	+153

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	5.1	1.122	.275	.015	.214	.483	.594	.355	.423	.562	.985
Jonathan Aranda	5.0	.982	.256	.005	.223	.549	.973	.334	.416	.547	.963
Junior Caminero	4.9	.853	.227	.008	.425	.415	.722	.339	.398	.679	1.077
Cedric Mullins	4.8	.803	.219	.030	.184	.423	.869	.285	.354	.477	.830
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.7	.845	.234	.023	.170	.380	.846	.298	.360	.483	.842
Chandler Simpson	4.6	1.187	.172	.081	.018	.248	.360	.338	.376	.428	.804
Richie Palacios	4.5	.823	.213	.038	.088	.482	.679	.295	.380	.436	.816
Kenny Piper	4.3	.588	.197	.007	.166	.341	1.205	.242	.311	.421	.732
Taylor Walls	4.2	.692	.189	.038	.072	.431	.868	.262	.342	.389	.731

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.7	.846	.184	.072	.141	.315	.782	.288	.348	.463	.810
Kyle Karros	4.6	.756	.227	.029	.130	.478	.985	.281	.364	.448	.811
Cole Carrigg	4.5	.742	.157	.061	.131	.317	.991	.266	.327	.429	.756
Hunter Goodman	4.4	.569	.182	.021	.294	.304	1.192	.265	.323	.539	.862
Mickey Moniak	4.3	.633	.169	.048	.234	.235	1.031	.272	.318	.514	.831
Willi Castro	4.2	.664	.169	.021	.121	.328	.981	.262	.339	.416	.755
Tyler Freeman	4.0	.765	.176	.021	.079	.292	.531	.287	.361	.412	.773
Troy Johnston	4.0	.675	.189	.017	.111	.286	.763	.276	.341	.431	.772
Ezequiel Tovar	3.8	.596	.186	.015	.143	.206	.922	.261	.306	.440	.746

Data notes: game-time temp 89F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections