Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

August 2, 2026 · Seth Lugo vs Kyle Freeland · 100°F

3.4% edge · Kansas City Royals

Kansas City Royals win

49.9%

Colorado Rockies win

50.1%

Fair line (home)

-100

Proj. total

11.72

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Kansas City Royals (mean 5.98)Colorado Rockies (mean 5.74)

O/U line

11.5

Proj. total

11.72

Over

46.8%

Under

53.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Kansas City Royals	49.9%	+111	+100
Colorado Rockies	50.1%	-120	-100

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Carter Jensen	5.0	.908	.285	.021	.225	.388	1.028	.311	.367	.528	.895
Nick Loftin	4.9	.963	.276	.037	.138	.387	.551	.316	.377	.486	.863
Jac Caglianone	4.8	.887	.246	.031	.280	.294	.962	.323	.371	.580	.952
Salvador Perez	4.7	.885	.225	.005	.266	.179	.734	.310	.347	.542	.888
Starling Marte	4.6	1.055	.236	.016	.135	.238	.799	.337	.382	.494	.876
John Rave	4.5	.809	.218	.041	.155	.353	.932	.297	.356	.483	.840
Tyler Tolbert	4.4	.890	.221	.021	.078	.231	.839	.295	.340	.416	.757
Josh Rojas	4.3	.830	.245	.018	.095	.301	.678	.302	.354	.445	.800
Luke Maile	4.2	.740	.197	.013	.114	.345	.938	.283	.351	.433	.784

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.979	.221	.084	.135	.311	.702	.319	.372	.497	.869
Mickey Moniak	4.7	.798	.228	.064	.266	.237	.991	.305	.345	.564	.909
Cole Carrigg	4.6	.906	.196	.088	.128	.320	.860	.312	.369	.492	.861
TJ Rumfield	4.5	.871	.230	.021	.162	.401	.657	.319	.389	.507	.896
Willi Castro	4.4	.812	.200	.029	.128	.353	.906	.298	.370	.462	.831
Troy Johnston	4.3	.845	.238	.021	.117	.304	.724	.312	.371	.473	.844
Edouard Julien	4.2	.735	.180	.018	.128	.559	.981	.296	.396	.464	.860
Brett Sullivan	4.1	.696	.203	.034	.110	.281	.586	.277	.332	.436	.769
Ezequiel Tovar	4.0	.707	.228	.023	.146	.202	.819	.296	.337	.487	.825

Data notes: game-time temp 100F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections