Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

August 5, 2026 · Nick Martinez vs Tomoyuki Sugano · 84°F

1.7% edge · Colorado Rockies

Tampa Bay Rays win

57.7%

Colorado Rockies win

42.3%

Fair line (home)

+136

Proj. total

11.48

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 6.35)Colorado Rockies (mean 5.13)

O/U line

Proj. total

11.48

Over

45.5%

Under

45.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	57.7%	-154	-136
Colorado Rockies	42.3%	+141	+136

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Victor Mesa Jr.	5.1	.957	.262	.025	.200	.339	.819	.306	.356	.498	.855
Jonathan Aranda	5.0	.998	.266	.006	.232	.473	.880	.338	.410	.558	.968
Junior Caminero	4.9	.881	.235	.006	.431	.350	.657	.345	.395	.687	1.082
Liam Hicks	4.8	1.015	.207	.024	.158	.413	.438	.329	.398	.500	.898
Chandler Simpson	4.7	1.229	.174	.078	.019	.217	.326	.339	.372	.426	.798
Cedric Mullins	4.5	.791	.213	.026	.189	.344	.727	.292	.352	.492	.844
Richie Palacios	4.4	.843	.226	.041	.097	.410	.609	.303	.375	.453	.828
Taylor Walls	4.3	.754	.197	.039	.072	.398	.820	.272	.343	.398	.741
Nick Fortes	4.2	.831	.215	.010	.134	.186	.468	.300	.343	.461	.804

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.7	.928	.198	.078	.138	.259	.656	.305	.353	.480	.833
Cole Carrigg	4.6	.839	.186	.086	.129	.282	.833	.290	.341	.465	.806
Mickey Moniak	4.5	.740	.198	.058	.257	.203	.909	.295	.332	.550	.882
Kyle Karros	4.4	.803	.232	.029	.127	.377	.816	.301	.368	.470	.839
TJ Rumfield	4.3	.774	.203	.017	.162	.333	.626	.296	.359	.482	.841
Jordan Beck	4.2	.688	.186	.041	.149	.280	.959	.274	.327	.458	.785
Edouard Julien	4.1	.664	.170	.018	.126	.473	.966	.274	.365	.437	.802
Ezequiel Tovar	4.0	.663	.210	.021	.160	.183	.819	.280	.318	.475	.793
Brett Sullivan	3.9	.636	.180	.029	.105	.217	.567	.263	.310	.417	.726

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections