Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

August 4, 2026 · Freddy Peralta vs Gabriel Hughes · 73°F

0.6% edge · Colorado Rockies

Tampa Bay Rays win

60.8%

Colorado Rockies win

39.2%

Fair line (home)

+155

Proj. total

10.44

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 5.91)Colorado Rockies (mean 4.53)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.44

Over

36.6%

Under

54.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	60.8%	-168	-155
Colorado Rockies	39.2%	+154	+155

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	5.1	1.104	.258	.014	.182	.472	.632	.341	.409	.524	.933
Jonathan Aranda	5.0	.963	.243	.005	.175	.532	1.038	.317	.399	.495	.894
Junior Caminero	4.9	.855	.225	.007	.337	.402	.772	.321	.380	.602	.982
Liam Hicks	4.8	.962	.198	.021	.121	.464	.532	.308	.386	.451	.837
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.7	.810	.233	.020	.142	.363	.889	.283	.343	.446	.789
Chandler Simpson	4.5	1.170	.160	.073	.016	.239	.385	.331	.368	.413	.781
Cedric Mullins	4.4	.706	.195	.024	.146	.378	.844	.267	.336	.437	.773
Richie Palacios	4.3	.780	.191	.035	.070	.460	.702	.283	.367	.407	.774
Taylor Walls	4.2	.690	.181	.035	.051	.422	.911	.255	.334	.362	.697

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.7	.829	.177	.071	.119	.338	.842	.282	.345	.442	.787
Cole Carrigg	4.5	.728	.155	.069	.110	.360	1.057	.257	.324	.408	.732
Mickey Moniak	4.4	.623	.175	.052	.227	.249	1.141	.261	.309	.493	.802
Hunter Goodman	4.3	.537	.183	.020	.265	.316	1.245	.254	.317	.512	.828
TJ Rumfield	4.2	.678	.174	.014	.132	.406	.795	.267	.348	.427	.776
Kyle Karros	4.1	.664	.198	.024	.105	.446	.937	.274	.360	.429	.788
Willi Castro	4.0	.627	.151	.023	.093	.349	1.000	.251	.333	.384	.718
Jordan Beck	3.9	.560	.153	.035	.115	.315	1.097	.243	.310	.404	.713
Ezequiel Tovar	3.8	.559	.173	.016	.117	.212	.967	.245	.292	.402	.694

Data notes: home starter Gabriel Hughes: only 59 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Gabriel Hughes: only 40 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections