Los Angeles Dodgers vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

August 19, 2026 · Roki Sasaki vs Kyle Freeland · 88°F

2.4% edge · Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers win

66.5%

Colorado Rockies win

33.5%

Fair line (home)

+199

Proj. total

11.96

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Los Angeles Dodgers (mean 7.06)Colorado Rockies (mean 4.90)

Totals

O/U line

11.5

Proj. total

11.96

Over

49.4%

Under

50.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Los Angeles Dodgers	66.5%	-190	-199
Colorado Rockies	33.5%	+173	+199

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Roki Sasaki RHP · Los Angeles Dodgers	5.0	4.5	5.6	1.6	2.7
Kyle Freeland LHP · Colorado Rockies	5.1	3.5	7.3	1.4	3.8

Strikeout ladder

Roki Sasaki4+ 66%6+ 29%8+ 7%

Kyle Freeland4+ 46%6+ 14%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Los Angeles Dodgers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Shohei Ohtani	5.1	.835	.240	.055	.455	.579	.955	.351	.429	.730	1.159
Andy Pages	5.0	.952	.269	.020	.295	.276	.786	.327	.370	.581	.951
Teoscar Hernández	4.9	.902	.252	.009	.299	.282	1.021	.318	.363	.572	.935
Freddie Freeman	4.8	1.004	.295	.016	.226	.403	.644	.355	.417	.586	1.003
Mookie Betts	4.7	.900	.251	.021	.240	.374	.423	.329	.387	.566	.953
Miguel Rojas	4.6	.994	.267	.007	.123	.239	.431	.323	.363	.473	.836
Kyle Tucker	4.5	.790	.205	.029	.247	.488	.573	.321	.399	.575	.974
Enrique Hernández	4.4	.775	.211	.016	.167	.254	.806	.285	.330	.467	.797
Ben Rortvedt	4.3	.701	.180	.007	.129	.292	.865	.260	.320	.409	.728

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.7	.861	.195	.064	.138	.321	.809	.291	.351	.462	.813
Mickey Moniak	4.6	.680	.180	.053	.261	.260	1.168	.273	.321	.521	.843
Cole Carrigg	4.5	.738	.180	.058	.136	.345	1.000	.273	.338	.445	.784
TJ Rumfield	4.4	.744	.196	.014	.158	.423	.760	.286	.364	.465	.829
Zac Veen	4.3	.642	.180	.036	.200	.321	1.035	.271	.332	.489	.820
Connor Norby	4.2	.646	.200	.008	.167	.364	1.060	.272	.345	.464	.809
Adael Amador	4.1	.624	.138	.018	.128	.435	.708	.253	.339	.408	.747
Brett Sullivan	4.0	.580	.163	.029	.120	.275	.713	.245	.304	.404	.708
Ezequiel Tovar	3.8	.579	.190	.016	.137	.232	.962	.258	.309	.435	.744

Data notes: game-time temp 88F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections