Cleveland Guardians vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

August 21, 2026 · Joey Cantillo vs Tanner Gordon · 93°F

3.3% edge · Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians win

61.4%

Colorado Rockies win

38.6%

Fair line (home)

+159

Proj. total

11.59

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cleveland Guardians (mean 6.60)Colorado Rockies (mean 4.99)

Totals

O/U line

10.5

Proj. total

11.59

Over

54.9%

Under

45.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cleveland Guardians	61.4%	-146	-159
Colorado Rockies	38.6%	+134	+159

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Joey Cantillo LHP · Cleveland Guardians	4.6	4.8	5.2	1.7	2.4
Tanner Gordon RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.0	2.5	5.7	1.0	2.8

Strikeout ladder

Joey Cantillo4+ 72%6+ 36%8+ 11%

Tanner Gordon4+ 25%6+ 4%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	5.1	1.146	.252	.027	.107	.432	.363	.331	.391	.466	.857
Chase DeLauter	5.0	1.042	.291	.019	.244	.404	.559	.350	.405	.583	.988
José Ramírez	4.9	.893	.278	.018	.275	.405	.438	.330	.390	.586	.976
Jo Adell	4.8	.795	.236	.016	.332	.238	.929	.309	.354	.593	.947
Nathaniel Lowe	4.7	.867	.232	.009	.222	.432	.878	.317	.384	.535	.919
Angel Genao	4.5	.964	.242	.026	.131	.277	.648	.322	.368	.484	.851
Travis Bazzana	4.4	.770	.230	.040	.152	.413	.849	.300	.372	.492	.864
Patrick Bailey	4.3	.780	.172	.030	.141	.273	.911	.279	.329	.442	.771
Petey Halpin	4.2	.771	.196	.048	.136	.226	.828	.291	.333	.467	.801

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.906	.196	.070	.130	.344	.844	.299	.358	.465	.824
Kyle Karros	4.6	.792	.229	.023	.135	.508	1.047	.289	.373	.455	.828
Cole Carrigg	4.5	.782	.198	.049	.128	.343	1.041	.280	.343	.445	.788
TJ Rumfield	4.4	.797	.202	.015	.145	.454	.786	.297	.377	.468	.845
Willi Castro	4.3	.702	.176	.023	.123	.369	1.100	.266	.344	.420	.764
Jordan Beck	4.2	.627	.178	.041	.147	.345	1.170	.258	.323	.440	.763
Mickey Moniak	4.1	.631	.168	.051	.208	.242	1.074	.277	.325	.510	.836
Braxton Fulford	4.0	.549	.181	.017	.129	.339	1.205	.244	.319	.411	.730
Ezequiel Tovar	3.9	.615	.200	.016	.129	.249	.983	.266	.318	.439	.757

Data notes: game-time temp 93F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections