Cleveland Guardians vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

August 22, 2026 · Tanner Bibee vs Gabriel Hughes · 72°F

0.9% edge · Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians win

57.6%

Colorado Rockies win

42.4%

Fair line (home)

+136

Proj. total

11.11

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cleveland Guardians (mean 6.12)Colorado Rockies (mean 4.99)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

11.11

Over

42.0%

Under

48.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cleveland Guardians	57.6%	-137	-136
Colorado Rockies	42.4%	+126	+136

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Tanner Bibee RHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.2	4.2	6.3	1.4	2.9
Gabriel Hughes RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.4	3.1	5.8	1.6	2.7

Strikeout ladder

Tanner Bibee4+ 62%6+ 24%8+ 6%

Gabriel Hughes4+ 38%6+ 8%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	5.1	1.121	.238	.026	.083	.509	.384	.322	.394	.440	.834
Chase DeLauter	5.0	1.023	.291	.018	.187	.450	.599	.337	.400	.534	.934
José Ramírez	4.9	.900	.271	.019	.218	.469	.452	.322	.392	.543	.935
Jo Adell	4.8	.789	.226	.019	.265	.272	.971	.295	.347	.535	.882
Nathaniel Lowe	4.7	.875	.220	.011	.172	.492	.908	.309	.387	.493	.879
Angel Genao	4.5	.942	.241	.029	.103	.327	.678	.314	.369	.460	.829
Travis Bazzana	4.4	.742	.223	.039	.118	.465	.890	.286	.369	.453	.822
Patrick Bailey	4.3	.775	.173	.027	.107	.318	.937	.272	.330	.410	.740
Petey Halpin	4.2	.761	.202	.049	.115	.243	.853	.286	.332	.449	.781

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.7	.921	.199	.065	.131	.272	.755	.300	.351	.465	.815
Mickey Moniak	4.6	.732	.201	.057	.244	.221	1.097	.283	.324	.524	.848
Cole Carrigg	4.5	.780	.200	.066	.129	.309	.919	.285	.343	.459	.802
TJ Rumfield	4.4	.788	.219	.018	.148	.358	.724	.296	.363	.473	.835
Kyle Karros	4.3	.754	.214	.023	.124	.404	.866	.292	.367	.457	.824
Willi Castro	4.2	.704	.169	.029	.123	.308	1.004	.272	.342	.430	.772
Troy Johnston	4.1	.741	.203	.023	.103	.264	.739	.286	.343	.435	.778
Brett Sullivan	4.0	.635	.177	.032	.111	.239	.662	.258	.309	.414	.723
Zac Veen	3.9	.606	.179	.030	.171	.254	.884	.277	.329	.488	.817

Data notes: home starter Gabriel Hughes: only 61 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections