Cleveland Guardians vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

August 23, 2026 · Foster Griffin vs Tomoyuki Sugano · 86°F

3.9% edge · Cleveland Guardians

Cleveland Guardians win

63.4%

Colorado Rockies win

36.5%

Fair line (home)

+174

Proj. total

11.34

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Cleveland Guardians (mean 6.59)Colorado Rockies (mean 4.76)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

11.34

Over

44.5%

Under

46.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Cleveland Guardians	63.4%	-155	-174
Colorado Rockies	36.5%	+142	+174

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Foster Griffin LHP · Cleveland Guardians	5.3	4.9	6.3	1.0	2.8
Tomoyuki Sugano RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.8	2.5	7.1	1.2	3.5

Strikeout ladder

Foster Griffin4+ 73%6+ 37%8+ 11%

Tomoyuki Sugano4+ 25%6+ 4%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Cleveland Guardians — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Steven Kwan	5.1	1.209	.244	.027	.102	.413	.316	.339	.396	.468	.865
Chase DeLauter	5.0	1.063	.308	.018	.233	.377	.516	.352	.404	.578	.982
Jo Adell	4.9	.830	.247	.018	.333	.236	.863	.312	.357	.591	.949
Nathaniel Lowe	4.8	.939	.237	.011	.229	.438	.799	.328	.393	.547	.939
Angel Genao	4.7	1.029	.263	.031	.127	.273	.601	.332	.375	.493	.869
Travis Bazzana	4.6	.825	.253	.041	.147	.427	.780	.310	.381	.499	.880
Angel Martínez	4.5	.845	.259	.023	.187	.180	.675	.311	.348	.516	.864
Austin Hedges	4.3	.799	.178	.009	.149	.305	.691	.284	.341	.445	.786
Brayan Rocchio	4.2	.845	.215	.033	.122	.255	.493	.311	.363	.476	.839

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.7	.938	.200	.072	.123	.239	.771	.304	.350	.467	.818
Cole Carrigg	4.6	.829	.200	.049	.122	.260	.991	.283	.335	.439	.774
Willi Castro	4.5	.765	.191	.021	.129	.281	1.069	.273	.339	.425	.765
Mickey Moniak	4.3	.699	.190	.055	.225	.195	1.045	.284	.323	.522	.845
Connor Norby	4.2	.726	.228	.009	.151	.284	1.051	.285	.342	.464	.806
Jordan Beck	4.1	.659	.197	.035	.142	.254	1.091	.268	.318	.448	.766
Brett Sullivan	4.0	.662	.194	.038	.114	.222	.685	.267	.314	.429	.743
Ryan Ritter	3.9	.683	.181	.032	.093	.242	.977	.274	.332	.420	.751
Ezequiel Tovar	3.8	.635	.207	.017	.126	.181	.907	.273	.314	.445	.759

Data notes: game-time temp 86F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections