Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

August 31, 2026 · Cade Povich vs Tanner Gordon · 83°F

2.7% edge · Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles win

55.8%

Colorado Rockies win

44.2%

Fair line (home)

+126

Proj. total

12.15

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 6.61)Colorado Rockies (mean 5.54)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

12.15

Over

50.2%

Under

40.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	55.8%	-118	-126
Colorado Rockies	44.2%	+109	+126

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Cade Povich LHP · Baltimore Orioles	4.4	3.9	5.4	1.3	2.7
Tanner Gordon RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.2	3.5	5.6	1.1	3.0

Strikeout ladder

Cade Povich4+ 56%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Tanner Gordon4+ 46%6+ 13%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Holliday	5.1	.910	.218	.032	.199	.465	.901	.298	.367	.491	.858
Pete Alonso	5.0	.789	.234	.007	.395	.422	.888	.320	.389	.643	1.032
Gunnar Henderson	4.8	.851	.247	.037	.284	.397	.768	.323	.385	.589	.974
Coby Mayo	4.7	.703	.226	.035	.319	.329	1.077	.295	.351	.584	.935
Dylan Beavers	4.6	.819	.222	.016	.187	.428	.853	.300	.369	.496	.865
Samuel Basallo	4.5	.737	.200	.014	.316	.303	.877	.304	.356	.586	.942
Blaze Alexander	4.4	.825	.192	.027	.149	.286	.956	.296	.355	.468	.823
Colton Cowser	4.3	.663	.174	.008	.225	.379	1.078	.277	.348	.500	.848
Leody Taveras	4.2	.755	.161	.058	.144	.271	.747	.288	.337	.470	.807

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.940	.209	.075	.136	.312	.720	.308	.361	.482	.843
Connor Norby	4.7	.790	.260	.011	.186	.375	1.049	.294	.357	.492	.849
Hunter Goodman	4.5	.635	.210	.025	.335	.320	1.185	.287	.343	.589	.932
TJ Rumfield	4.4	.823	.219	.016	.155	.400	.669	.304	.374	.484	.859
Willi Castro	4.3	.755	.193	.024	.140	.334	.962	.285	.354	.454	.809
Mickey Moniak	4.2	.692	.180	.057	.237	.234	.959	.294	.337	.547	.884
Jordan Beck	4.1	.664	.197	.036	.155	.313	1.022	.278	.336	.472	.809
Troy Johnston	4.0	.751	.203	.023	.109	.281	.693	.295	.352	.451	.804
Ezequiel Tovar	3.9	.657	.227	.014	.140	.222	.850	.284	.329	.469	.798

Data notes: away starter Cade Povich: only 42 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections