Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

September 1, 2026 · Kyle Bradish vs Gabriel Hughes · 82°F

1.5% edge · Colorado Rockies

Baltimore Orioles win

56.1%

Colorado Rockies win

43.9%

Fair line (home)

+128

Proj. total

11.76

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 6.41)Colorado Rockies (mean 5.35)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

11.76

Over

47.6%

Under

43.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	56.1%	-142	-128
Colorado Rockies	43.9%	+131	+128

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Kyle Bradish RHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.1	4.8	6.1	1.7	2.9
Gabriel Hughes RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.5	4.0	5.8	1.7	3.0

Strikeout ladder

Kyle Bradish4+ 70%6+ 35%8+ 10%

Gabriel Hughes4+ 58%6+ 21%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Holliday	5.1	.906	.229	.032	.171	.523	.922	.297	.375	.476	.851
Pete Alonso	5.0	.783	.241	.006	.344	.470	.930	.313	.391	.606	.996
Gunnar Henderson	4.8	.850	.247	.043	.240	.447	.802	.317	.387	.559	.946
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	4.7	.797	.237	.025	.286	.196	1.054	.299	.335	.554	.889
Dylan Beavers	4.6	.820	.217	.018	.164	.500	.852	.298	.379	.480	.859
Samuel Basallo	4.5	.734	.207	.013	.284	.360	.903	.300	.361	.563	.924
Leody Taveras	4.4	.825	.174	.059	.123	.310	.788	.290	.343	.453	.796
Colton Cowser	4.3	.679	.180	.008	.210	.423	1.080	.281	.359	.497	.856
Carlos Narváez	4.2	.654	.193	.005	.145	.346	.985	.263	.333	.433	.766

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.938	.219	.076	.124	.314	.780	.308	.362	.477	.840
Mickey Moniak	4.7	.750	.195	.063	.236	.264	1.117	.286	.332	.522	.854
Hunter Goodman	4.5	.636	.214	.022	.297	.337	1.260	.281	.340	.557	.896
TJ Rumfield	4.4	.814	.216	.017	.142	.400	.741	.300	.371	.470	.841
Cole Carrigg	4.3	.772	.196	.063	.115	.337	.902	.292	.355	.462	.817
Connor Norby	4.2	.712	.238	.008	.150	.349	1.023	.290	.355	.474	.829
Brett Sullivan	4.1	.683	.189	.035	.107	.262	.697	.265	.317	.417	.734
Adael Amador	4.0	.682	.171	.019	.112	.407	.639	.277	.357	.430	.787
Zac Veen	3.9	.632	.188	.035	.166	.283	.888	.285	.342	.496	.838

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections