Baltimore Orioles vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

September 2, 2026 · Trevor Rogers vs Tomoyuki Sugano · 84°F

1.6% edge · Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore Orioles win

61.7%

Colorado Rockies win

38.3%

Fair line (home)

+161

Proj. total

12.57

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Baltimore Orioles (mean 7.20)Colorado Rockies (mean 5.37)

Totals

O/U line

11.5

Proj. total

12.57

Over

54.2%

Under

45.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Baltimore Orioles	61.7%	-159	-161
Colorado Rockies	38.3%	+146	+161

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Trevor Rogers LHP · Baltimore Orioles	5.0	4.2	6.3	1.4	2.9
Tomoyuki Sugano RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.6	3.3	6.9	1.3	3.8

Strikeout ladder

Trevor Rogers4+ 62%6+ 25%8+ 6%

Tomoyuki Sugano4+ 44%6+ 12%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Baltimore Orioles — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jackson Holliday	5.2	.983	.237	.033	.215	.454	.804	.315	.380	.518	.898
Pete Alonso	5.0	.852	.255	.006	.406	.404	.820	.334	.399	.662	1.061
Gunnar Henderson	4.9	.895	.259	.043	.287	.395	.706	.331	.391	.601	.992
Luis Robert Jr.	4.8	.866	.224	.009	.271	.302	.966	.307	.357	.544	.901
Samuel Basallo	4.7	.803	.223	.013	.348	.302	.816	.318	.367	.615	.982
Coby Mayo	4.6	.706	.230	.036	.308	.313	.978	.303	.357	.593	.950
Dylan Beavers	4.5	.831	.219	.017	.183	.430	.750	.312	.382	.512	.894
Blaze Alexander	4.4	.859	.221	.029	.145	.279	.862	.313	.370	.491	.861
Colton Cowser	4.3	.711	.185	.007	.235	.368	.964	.297	.366	.533	.899

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.968	.212	.075	.138	.285	.684	.313	.361	.487	.848
Connor Norby	4.7	.832	.258	.011	.176	.350	1.040	.298	.357	.488	.844
Hunter Goodman	4.6	.659	.222	.026	.311	.309	1.149	.289	.342	.575	.917
TJ Rumfield	4.4	.858	.228	.017	.147	.376	.640	.312	.377	.487	.864
Cole Carrigg	4.3	.804	.207	.047	.125	.277	.843	.295	.348	.464	.812
Jordan Beck	4.2	.692	.207	.041	.158	.293	.998	.280	.334	.475	.809
Adael Amador	4.1	.712	.179	.013	.122	.362	.612	.275	.344	.428	.772
Ryan Ritter	4.0	.704	.185	.035	.107	.271	.909	.279	.338	.435	.773
Ezequiel Tovar	3.9	.674	.217	.016	.134	.205	.835	.283	.324	.460	.784

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections