St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

September 4, 2026 · Andre Pallante vs Ryan Feltner · 85°F

0.3% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

54.2%

Colorado Rockies win

45.8%

Fair line (home)

+118

Proj. total

12.08

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 6.45)Colorado Rockies (mean 5.62)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

12.08

Over

50.0%

Under

41.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	54.2%	-122	-118
Colorado Rockies	45.8%	+113	+118

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Andre Pallante RHP · St. Louis Cardinals	4.9	3.4	6.7	1.6	3.1
Ryan Feltner RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.5	3.6	6.1	1.8	3.2

Strikeout ladder

Andre Pallante4+ 46%6+ 13%8+ 2%

Ryan Feltner4+ 48%6+ 15%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bryan Torres	5.1	1.105	.224	.047	.097	.533	.715	.325	.399	.459	.859
Iván Herrera	5.0	.969	.234	.015	.184	.544	.719	.323	.411	.511	.923
Alec Burleson	4.9	.985	.260	.015	.240	.390	.565	.336	.393	.562	.955
Jordan Walker	4.8	.905	.265	.009	.233	.378	.924	.324	.383	.549	.932
Leo Bernal	4.7	.853	.207	.021	.160	.355	.795	.290	.348	.460	.808
Joshua Báez	4.5	.713	.226	.026	.272	.286	1.091	.294	.347	.553	.900
Nolan Gorman	4.4	.617	.166	.009	.247	.476	1.228	.263	.346	.498	.844
Thomas Saggese	4.3	.819	.229	.020	.144	.275	.866	.301	.352	.476	.827
Nathan Church	4.2	.845	.185	.031	.131	.246	.535	.303	.350	.466	.816

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	1.040	.232	.079	.106	.302	.583	.325	.377	.483	.860
Mickey Moniak	4.7	.854	.237	.068	.189	.245	.901	.303	.344	.513	.858
Hunter Goodman	4.6	.740	.242	.026	.248	.334	1.062	.296	.352	.540	.892
TJ Rumfield	4.5	.910	.232	.019	.119	.438	.557	.319	.393	.476	.869
Cole Carrigg	4.4	.839	.215	.062	.105	.318	.738	.304	.362	.467	.828
Connor Norby	4.3	.790	.259	.011	.126	.352	.861	.305	.369	.475	.844
Troy Johnston	4.2	.852	.233	.028	.086	.294	.614	.313	.370	.455	.825
Adael Amador	4.1	.730	.187	.025	.087	.395	.514	.283	.358	.420	.778
Zac Veen	4.0	.697	.207	.041	.135	.283	.761	.297	.352	.487	.839

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections