St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

September 5, 2026 · Matthew Liberatore vs Mason Adams · 84°F

1.4% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

54.8%

Colorado Rockies win

45.3%

Fair line (home)

+121

Proj. total

11.63

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 6.27)Colorado Rockies (mean 5.35)

Totals

O/U line

10.5

Proj. total

11.63

Over

54.6%

Under

45.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	54.8%	-120	-121
Colorado Rockies	45.3%	+110	+121

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Matthew Liberatore LHP · St. Louis Cardinals	4.8	4.2	5.8	1.5	2.7
Mason Adams RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.1	3.1	5.6	1.4	2.7

Strikeout ladder

Matthew Liberatore4+ 61%6+ 24%8+ 6%

Mason Adams4+ 37%6+ 8%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bryan Torres	5.1	1.143	.227	.047	.081	.495	.703	.329	.399	.453	.852
Iván Herrera	5.0	.980	.237	.014	.174	.489	.709	.323	.408	.504	.912
Alec Burleson	4.9	1.006	.268	.015	.214	.358	.559	.336	.391	.546	.938
Jordan Walker	4.8	.903	.271	.011	.213	.349	.911	.321	.377	.534	.911
Leo Bernal	4.7	.852	.208	.024	.143	.326	.789	.286	.342	.446	.788
Joshua Báez	4.5	.726	.223	.026	.245	.265	1.075	.290	.342	.531	.872
Nolan Gorman	4.4	.638	.167	.008	.235	.450	1.218	.266	.344	.490	.835
Thomas Saggese	4.3	.840	.215	.022	.130	.262	.849	.302	.352	.464	.816
Nathan Church	4.2	.873	.192	.036	.119	.227	.522	.310	.354	.468	.822

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.957	.216	.080	.125	.296	.686	.312	.364	.482	.847
Connor Norby	4.7	.803	.261	.010	.162	.378	1.076	.292	.358	.474	.831
Hunter Goodman	4.5	.670	.227	.021	.301	.313	1.162	.290	.344	.568	.913
TJ Rumfield	4.4	.853	.218	.018	.142	.420	.639	.311	.384	.482	.866
Cole Carrigg	4.3	.789	.208	.043	.122	.296	.843	.292	.350	.458	.808
Jordan Beck	4.2	.692	.192	.041	.138	.314	1.052	.273	.332	.450	.782
Troy Johnston	4.1	.799	.215	.025	.101	.283	.691	.301	.358	.452	.810
Adael Amador	4.0	.715	.172	.015	.107	.356	.584	.279	.351	.424	.775
Ezequiel Tovar	3.9	.685	.222	.015	.126	.210	.840	.285	.328	.457	.784

Data notes: home starter Mason Adams: only 19 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Mason Adams: only 19 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections