St. Louis Cardinals vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

September 6, 2026 · Kyle Leahy vs Tanner Gordon · 89°F

1.2% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

57.4%

Colorado Rockies win

42.6%

Fair line (home)

+135

Proj. total

11.66

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 6.41)Colorado Rockies (mean 5.25)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

11.66

Over

46.8%

Under

43.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	57.4%	-134	-135
Colorado Rockies	42.6%	+124	+135

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Kyle Leahy RHP · St. Louis Cardinals	4.6	3.2	5.8	1.4	2.6
Tanner Gordon RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.2	3.0	5.9	1.0	3.0

Strikeout ladder

Kyle Leahy4+ 41%6+ 10%8+ 1%

Tanner Gordon4+ 36%6+ 8%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Bryan Torres	5.0	1.115	.230	.042	.101	.429	.693	.324	.386	.458	.844
Iván Herrera	4.9	.987	.234	.015	.214	.426	.693	.329	.402	.535	.937
Alec Burleson	4.8	.984	.257	.014	.264	.305	.547	.339	.386	.579	.964
Jordan Walker	4.7	.877	.278	.009	.251	.300	.907	.323	.371	.562	.933
Leo Bernal	4.6	.859	.210	.022	.167	.276	.755	.292	.339	.467	.806
Joshua Báez	4.5	.718	.221	.026	.310	.228	1.041	.302	.346	.588	.934
Nolan Gorman	4.4	.628	.159	.008	.278	.388	1.219	.269	.337	.523	.860
Thomas Saggese	4.3	.831	.223	.021	.165	.220	.829	.308	.350	.497	.847
Nathan Church	4.2	.830	.185	.032	.142	.206	.521	.303	.343	.475	.818

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.977	.212	.076	.124	.298	.643	.314	.366	.480	.845
Troy Johnston	4.7	.922	.263	.029	.111	.325	.733	.309	.366	.462	.829
Cole Carrigg	4.6	.851	.216	.063	.126	.320	.855	.300	.357	.472	.829
TJ Rumfield	4.4	.868	.225	.018	.143	.416	.597	.316	.388	.489	.878
Mickey Moniak	4.3	.732	.193	.060	.207	.229	.909	.293	.336	.522	.858
Adael Amador	4.2	.748	.186	.020	.108	.404	.579	.280	.355	.426	.781
Brett Sullivan	4.1	.691	.204	.036	.102	.281	.586	.270	.325	.422	.747
Vimael Machín	4.0	.772	.194	.026	.100	.291	.615	.295	.350	.441	.791
Ezequiel Tovar	3.9	.693	.230	.017	.127	.212	.810	.290	.332	.465	.797

Data notes: game-time temp 89F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections