San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

September 14, 2026 · Casey Mize vs Tomoyuki Sugano · 82°F

2.0% edge · Colorado Rockies

San Diego Padres win

63.6%

Colorado Rockies win

36.4%

Fair line (home)

+175

Proj. total

13.15

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 7.54)Colorado Rockies (mean 5.60)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

13.15

Over

57.8%

Under

33.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	63.6%	-203	-175
Colorado Rockies	36.4%	+185	+175

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Casey Mize RHP · San Diego Padres	4.6	4.0	5.9	1.2	2.9
Tomoyuki Sugano RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.6	2.5	7.4	1.2	3.9

Strikeout ladder

Casey Mize4+ 58%6+ 22%8+ 5%

Tomoyuki Sugano4+ 24%6+ 4%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	5.2	1.068	.300	.028	.364	.421	.617	.371	.427	.676	1.102
Dustin Harris	5.1	1.051	.240	.052	.178	.317	.719	.320	.368	.505	.874
Manny Machado	5.0	.971	.262	.003	.342	.366	.678	.342	.393	.623	1.016
Ty France	4.9	1.036	.256	.017	.243	.271	.651	.346	.401	.574	.975
Jackson Merrill	4.8	.944	.260	.051	.289	.257	.694	.343	.383	.617	.999
Luis Campusano	4.7	.902	.240	.007	.245	.378	.651	.328	.388	.560	.948
Xander Bogaerts	4.6	.997	.247	.006	.170	.357	.536	.340	.397	.525	.922
Jake Cronenworth	4.5	.822	.221	.014	.157	.373	.630	.303	.373	.482	.855
Freddy Fermin	4.3	.885	.228	.005	.156	.254	.609	.315	.360	.489	.849

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.8	.941	.201	.075	.160	.263	.737	.308	.355	.494	.849
Connor Norby	4.7	.799	.252	.009	.199	.345	1.143	.294	.353	.497	.850
Hunter Goodman	4.5	.622	.214	.022	.361	.283	1.224	.288	.338	.605	.943
TJ Rumfield	4.4	.806	.211	.019	.172	.384	.710	.301	.369	.492	.861
Cole Carrigg	4.3	.753	.185	.063	.141	.263	.950	.284	.335	.466	.801
Kyle Karros	4.2	.752	.221	.032	.144	.379	.857	.301	.371	.489	.860
Mickey Moniak	4.1	.662	.169	.048	.254	.188	.985	.290	.327	.552	.879
Adael Amador	4.0	.663	.166	.018	.145	.348	.639	.272	.340	.448	.788
Ezequiel Tovar	3.9	.663	.217	.018	.150	.200	.910	.284	.324	.475	.800

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections