San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

September 15, 2026 · Walker Buehler vs Kyle Freeland · 70°F

3.2% edge · Colorado Rockies

San Diego Padres win

60.9%

Colorado Rockies win

39.1%

Fair line (home)

+156

Proj. total

10.52

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 5.95)Colorado Rockies (mean 4.57)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.52

Over

37.9%

Under

53.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	60.9%	-189	-156
Colorado Rockies	39.1%	+173	+156

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Walker Buehler RHP · San Diego Padres	4.5	3.4	5.1	1.6	2.4
Kyle Freeland LHP · Colorado Rockies	5.2	3.8	6.8	1.3	3.3

Strikeout ladder

Walker Buehler4+ 43%6+ 12%8+ 2%

Kyle Freeland4+ 54%6+ 18%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	5.0	.982	.252	.026	.256	.426	.733	.333	.395	.567	.963
Austin Hays	4.9	.873	.244	.035	.182	.253	1.036	.288	.331	.475	.806
Manny Machado	4.8	.859	.223	.003	.245	.363	.786	.302	.358	.520	.878
Ty France	4.7	.923	.214	.014	.182	.270	.739	.311	.369	.494	.863
Jackson Merrill	4.6	.837	.238	.045	.218	.249	.803	.311	.353	.539	.892
Xander Bogaerts	4.5	.912	.223	.005	.125	.355	.615	.309	.369	.458	.827
Luis Campusano	4.4	.787	.198	.005	.172	.362	.738	.293	.357	.476	.833
Samad Taylor	4.3	.829	.150	.042	.096	.289	.918	.284	.338	.417	.755
Jake Cronenworth	4.1	.712	.192	.013	.106	.366	.698	.276	.353	.421	.774

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.7	.870	.191	.073	.110	.320	.739	.289	.349	.445	.794
Adael Amador	4.6	.723	.176	.021	.117	.459	.734	.255	.336	.394	.730
Cole Carrigg	4.5	.731	.181	.054	.111	.328	.991	.265	.328	.418	.746
TJ Rumfield	4.3	.768	.202	.018	.123	.450	.705	.289	.372	.447	.819
Kyle Karros	4.3	.711	.196	.027	.104	.446	.891	.276	.360	.425	.785
Mickey Moniak	4.2	.611	.172	.043	.189	.223	1.066	.260	.307	.472	.779
Troy Johnston	4.0	.682	.204	.019	.093	.298	.773	.271	.335	.411	.746
Brett Sullivan	3.9	.585	.176	.029	.088	.272	.680	.242	.300	.380	.680
Zac Veen	3.8	.576	.166	.029	.130	.290	.945	.258	.320	.433	.753

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections