San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

September 16, 2026 · Robbie Ray vs Mason Adams · 74°F

0.5% edge · Colorado Rockies

San Diego Padres win

60.2%

Colorado Rockies win

39.8%

Fair line (home)

+151

Proj. total

10.31

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 5.78)Colorado Rockies (mean 4.52)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.31

Over

35.7%

Under

55.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	60.2%	-163	-151
Colorado Rockies	39.8%	+150	+151

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Robbie Ray LHP · San Diego Padres	5.0	5.0	5.4	2.1	2.6
Mason Adams RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.2	3.1	5.3	1.5	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Robbie Ray4+ 75%6+ 37%8+ 12%

Mason Adams4+ 37%6+ 8%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	5.0	.954	.246	.025	.223	.507	.762	.322	.398	.537	.935
Dustin Harris	5.0	.933	.216	.048	.121	.364	.847	.291	.351	.440	.790
Manny Machado	4.8	.844	.226	.002	.238	.443	.795	.300	.368	.517	.885
Ty France	4.7	.895	.222	.015	.158	.325	.760	.304	.374	.475	.849
Jackson Merrill	4.6	.830	.238	.042	.194	.302	.826	.305	.356	.516	.872
Xander Bogaerts	4.5	.902	.211	.004	.114	.424	.654	.305	.376	.444	.820
Jake Cronenworth	4.4	.736	.199	.014	.106	.445	.750	.273	.360	.414	.774
Samad Taylor	4.3	.802	.150	.046	.090	.345	.947	.279	.342	.410	.752
Ethan Salas	4.2	.725	.196	.030	.086	.310	.671	.271	.330	.405	.735

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.7	.834	.183	.065	.132	.353	.808	.284	.347	.450	.797
Connor Norby	4.6	.675	.219	.008	.165	.456	1.208	.262	.344	.442	.786
Cole Carrigg	4.5	.717	.176	.037	.135	.339	1.077	.261	.325	.421	.747
Kyle Karros	4.4	.695	.192	.028	.130	.507	.979	.274	.366	.442	.808
Adael Amador	4.3	.650	.156	.011	.130	.446	.743	.251	.336	.402	.737
Troy Johnston	4.2	.691	.195	.021	.106	.338	.861	.269	.337	.417	.754
Jordan Beck	4.0	.576	.159	.032	.134	.355	1.165	.245	.315	.415	.731
Braxton Fulford	3.9	.501	.163	.014	.136	.336	1.229	.229	.304	.397	.701
Ezequiel Tovar	3.8	.567	.184	.015	.133	.250	.991	.253	.306	.426	.732

Data notes: home starter Mason Adams: only 41 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Mason Adams: only 36 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections