San Diego Padres vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

September 17, 2026 · Michael King vs Tanner Gordon · 71°F

2.9% edge · Colorado Rockies

San Diego Padres win

61.7%

Colorado Rockies win

38.3%

Fair line (home)

+161

Proj. total

10.58

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 6.03)Colorado Rockies (mean 4.55)

Totals

O/U line

10.5

Proj. total

10.58

Over

46.8%

Under

53.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	61.7%	-194	-161
Colorado Rockies	38.3%	+176	+161

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Michael King RHP · San Diego Padres	5.3	4.8	5.8	1.8	2.7
Tanner Gordon RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.3	2.9	5.7	1.0	2.7

Strikeout ladder

Michael King4+ 71%6+ 34%8+ 10%

Tanner Gordon4+ 34%6+ 7%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	5.0	.958	.257	.026	.281	.423	.734	.333	.394	.585	.979
Dustin Harris	4.9	.920	.209	.044	.136	.315	.814	.287	.340	.442	.781
Manny Machado	4.8	.851	.220	.002	.265	.375	.758	.303	.360	.533	.893
Ty France	4.7	.912	.214	.016	.193	.265	.748	.309	.366	.501	.867
Jackson Merrill	4.6	.820	.231	.043	.236	.257	.792	.309	.352	.548	.900
Xander Bogaerts	4.5	.894	.210	.004	.135	.370	.619	.305	.367	.458	.825
Luis Campusano	4.4	.767	.189	.006	.193	.374	.736	.292	.358	.489	.847
Jake Cronenworth	4.3	.733	.189	.016	.119	.382	.704	.278	.354	.430	.784
Samad Taylor	4.2	.794	.153	.038	.110	.287	.875	.286	.340	.432	.772

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.7	.856	.185	.069	.108	.302	.805	.283	.340	.433	.773
Connor Norby	4.6	.707	.232	.009	.149	.386	1.216	.266	.337	.435	.772
Cole Carrigg	4.5	.725	.180	.057	.118	.325	1.049	.265	.329	.425	.754
TJ Rumfield	4.3	.758	.193	.020	.131	.435	.737	.286	.367	.448	.815
Kyle Karros	4.3	.701	.190	.025	.113	.431	.931	.273	.355	.426	.782
Mickey Moniak	4.2	.607	.167	.048	.187	.224	1.099	.259	.305	.471	.776
Troy Johnston	4.0	.666	.194	.018	.092	.299	.839	.264	.331	.402	.732
Brett Sullivan	3.9	.570	.170	.028	.099	.266	.709	.238	.296	.382	.678
Zac Veen	3.8	.562	.167	.034	.137	.286	.980	.258	.320	.444	.764

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections