Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

September 19, 2026 · Bryce Miller vs Jose Quintana · 64°F

2.1% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

60.2%

Colorado Rockies win

39.9%

Fair line (home)

+151

Proj. total

10.58

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 5.95)Colorado Rockies (mean 4.63)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.58

Over

38.3%

Under

52.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	60.2%	-145	-151
Colorado Rockies	39.9%	+134	+151

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Bryce Miller RHP · Seattle Mariners	4.9	4.8	5.5	1.4	2.5
Jose Quintana LHP · Colorado Rockies	4.3	3.2	5.4	1.8	2.8

Strikeout ladder

Bryce Miller4+ 72%6+ 35%8+ 10%

Jose Quintana4+ 39%6+ 10%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	5.0	.908	.217	.006	.121	.658	.718	.288	.388	.425	.813
Randy Arozarena	4.9	.842	.248	.010	.187	.515	.908	.301	.394	.494	.888
Dominic Canzone	4.8	.837	.221	.025	.224	.388	.820	.297	.358	.511	.869
Cal Raleigh	4.7	.609	.175	.002	.284	.546	1.072	.260	.354	.511	.865
Julio Rodríguez	4.6	.866	.218	.013	.218	.353	.759	.313	.374	.527	.901
Josh Naylor	4.5	.927	.213	.003	.145	.354	.465	.314	.373	.473	.846
Michael Arroyo	4.4	.766	.212	.030	.132	.311	.723	.286	.352	.454	.807
Lazaro Montes	4.3	.556	.166	.012	.232	.409	1.226	.252	.330	.484	.814
Weston Wilson	4.2	.638	.156	.008	.144	.379	1.003	.252	.326	.413	.738

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.7	.871	.188	.081	.114	.268	.760	.290	.340	.450	.791
Connor Norby	4.5	.736	.227	.008	.150	.348	1.153	.271	.334	.438	.773
TJ Rumfield	4.4	.787	.213	.021	.127	.398	.728	.289	.361	.449	.810
Hunter Goodman	4.3	.566	.177	.024	.261	.286	1.234	.257	.312	.508	.821
Cole Carrigg	4.2	.696	.176	.055	.115	.269	.970	.267	.323	.429	.752
Kyle Karros	4.1	.687	.189	.026	.104	.378	.895	.272	.347	.423	.769
Mickey Moniak	4.0	.597	.172	.048	.177	.191	1.033	.262	.302	.473	.775
Zac Veen	3.9	.595	.177	.031	.139	.261	.968	.262	.316	.443	.760
Ezequiel Tovar	3.8	.601	.185	.017	.119	.192	.926	.259	.300	.421	.721

Data notes: home starter Jose Quintana: only 39 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections