Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

September 18, 2026 · Bryan Woo vs Gabriel Hughes · 65°F

1.5% edge · Colorado Rockies

Seattle Mariners win

61.2%

Colorado Rockies win

38.8%

Fair line (home)

+158

Proj. total

9.98

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 5.73)Colorado Rockies (mean 4.25)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.98

Over

33.9%

Under

57.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	61.2%	-178	-158
Colorado Rockies	38.8%	+162	+158

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Bryan Woo RHP · Seattle Mariners	5.5	5.5	5.7	1.1	2.4
Gabriel Hughes RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.4	3.7	5.3	1.7	2.7

Strikeout ladder

Bryan Woo4+ 81%6+ 47%8+ 17%

Gabriel Hughes4+ 53%6+ 17%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	5.0	.880	.214	.005	.116	.623	.796	.281	.378	.413	.790
Randy Arozarena	4.9	.815	.235	.008	.184	.499	.985	.292	.384	.481	.864
Dominic Canzone	4.8	.812	.224	.028	.221	.378	.884	.294	.355	.509	.865
Cal Raleigh	4.7	.583	.167	.003	.285	.553	1.143	.255	.350	.507	.857
Julio Rodríguez	4.6	.866	.222	.012	.211	.316	.817	.313	.368	.522	.891
Josh Naylor	4.5	.889	.211	.003	.148	.336	.504	.306	.364	.468	.832
Cole Young	4.3	.814	.182	.035	.121	.337	.609	.291	.356	.446	.802
Lazaro Montes	4.2	.566	.166	.013	.233	.382	1.275	.256	.329	.488	.817
Brock Rodden	4.1	.650	.170	.027	.114	.276	1.020	.252	.310	.401	.711

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.6	.845	.186	.068	.103	.221	.818	.280	.326	.428	.754
Connor Norby	4.5	.689	.225	.007	.140	.287	1.219	.257	.314	.417	.731
TJ Rumfield	4.3	.775	.205	.017	.127	.344	.765	.284	.350	.441	.790
Hunter Goodman	4.3	.539	.178	.027	.251	.237	1.287	.250	.300	.498	.798
Cole Carrigg	4.2	.658	.169	.048	.116	.225	1.019	.256	.306	.414	.720
Kyle Karros	4.0	.669	.185	.027	.110	.319	.921	.269	.335	.424	.759
Mickey Moniak	3.9	.559	.163	.046	.177	.164	1.083	.253	.290	.463	.753
Adael Amador	3.8	.601	.144	.018	.101	.283	.676	.247	.310	.386	.696
Ezequiel Tovar	3.7	.572	.186	.014	.110	.160	.961	.251	.287	.405	.692

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections