Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

September 22, 2026 · Michael Soroka vs Kyle Freeland · 66°F

8.3% edge · Colorado Rockies

Arizona Diamondbacks win

55.8%

Colorado Rockies win

44.2%

Fair line (home)

+126

Proj. total

10.62

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 5.78)Colorado Rockies (mean 4.84)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.62

Over

38.5%

Under

52.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	55.8%	-190	-126
Colorado Rockies	44.2%	+173	+126

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Michael Soroka RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	4.8	4.7	5.4	1.5	2.5
Kyle Freeland LHP · Colorado Rockies	5.2	3.3	6.9	1.3	3.2

Strikeout ladder

Michael Soroka4+ 70%6+ 33%8+ 9%

Kyle Freeland4+ 42%6+ 11%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ildemaro Vargas	5.0	1.054	.232	.045	.099	.200	.420	.300	.335	.430	.765
Ketel Marte	4.9	.923	.262	.020	.226	.362	.598	.321	.379	.540	.920
Gabriel Moreno	4.8	1.021	.280	.014	.160	.395	.600	.340	.400	.522	.922
Geraldo Perdomo	4.7	.954	.195	.041	.105	.446	.484	.311	.386	.453	.840
Nolan Arenado	4.6	.813	.208	.016	.195	.288	.643	.291	.343	.486	.829
Jordan Lawlar	4.5	.764	.217	.038	.141	.255	1.040	.280	.332	.454	.785
Corbin Carroll	4.3	.650	.191	.117	.204	.404	.781	.299	.372	.565	.937
Tim Tawa	4.2	.711	.187	.023	.163	.286	.855	.276	.330	.460	.790
Jose Fernandez	4.1	.803	.201	.027	.101	.163	.816	.288	.321	.430	.751

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.7	.905	.193	.083	.096	.297	.743	.295	.353	.444	.798
Connor Norby	4.6	.743	.248	.009	.130	.370	1.169	.272	.342	.429	.771
TJ Rumfield	4.5	.819	.214	.017	.121	.443	.739	.294	.375	.448	.823
Hunter Goodman	4.4	.585	.187	.023	.245	.301	1.233	.258	.319	.499	.818
Cole Carrigg	4.3	.728	.176	.057	.104	.293	.979	.272	.332	.425	.758
Kyle Karros	4.2	.727	.198	.031	.104	.420	.864	.288	.369	.443	.813
Mickey Moniak	4.1	.618	.170	.057	.162	.200	1.034	.263	.307	.465	.772
Troy Johnston	4.0	.698	.215	.018	.079	.279	.743	.281	.345	.416	.761
Zac Veen	3.8	.590	.167	.034	.127	.281	.968	.261	.322	.436	.758

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections