Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

September 23, 2026 · Merrill Kelly vs Mason Adams · 62°F

1.9% edge · Colorado Rockies

Arizona Diamondbacks win

57.3%

Colorado Rockies win

42.7%

Fair line (home)

+134

Proj. total

11.26

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 6.23)Colorado Rockies (mean 5.04)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

11.26

Over

44.1%

Under

47.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	57.3%	-152	-134
Colorado Rockies	42.7%	+140	+134

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Merrill Kelly RHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	5.3	4.3	6.4	1.7	3.0
Mason Adams RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.3	3.0	5.6	1.9	2.8

Strikeout ladder

Merrill Kelly4+ 64%6+ 26%8+ 6%

Mason Adams4+ 35%6+ 8%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lars Nootbaar	5.1	.897	.254	.028	.151	.662	.849	.299	.394	.471	.865
Ketel Marte	5.0	.910	.258	.028	.203	.486	.624	.313	.389	.520	.909
Gabriel Moreno	4.9	1.044	.272	.016	.136	.497	.629	.337	.410	.500	.910
Geraldo Perdomo	4.8	.932	.193	.061	.091	.573	.499	.307	.398	.448	.846
Pavin Smith	4.7	.765	.205	.018	.134	.561	1.012	.273	.363	.428	.791
Nolan Arenado	4.6	.821	.216	.013	.173	.353	.651	.292	.355	.474	.829
Corbin Carroll	4.5	.682	.195	.107	.184	.474	.790	.297	.381	.541	.922
Jesús Sánchez	4.4	.782	.238	.019	.136	.350	.831	.296	.359	.468	.827
Tim Tawa	4.3	.707	.193	.023	.142	.324	.861	.273	.333	.443	.776

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.7	.940	.200	.088	.101	.304	.669	.303	.356	.458	.814
Cole Carrigg	4.6	.827	.209	.062	.125	.320	.932	.287	.344	.453	.797
Hunter Goodman	4.5	.624	.208	.024	.268	.331	1.148	.272	.331	.528	.859
TJ Rumfield	4.4	.832	.215	.019	.118	.446	.630	.303	.381	.459	.840
Kyle Karros	4.3	.777	.214	.030	.109	.436	.793	.296	.373	.454	.827
Adael Amador	4.2	.708	.165	.021	.105	.402	.587	.266	.341	.405	.746
Mickey Moniak	4.1	.636	.174	.057	.176	.225	.957	.272	.318	.485	.803
Zac Veen	4.0	.628	.188	.040	.134	.299	.908	.271	.330	.454	.785
Ezequiel Tovar	3.9	.651	.210	.018	.110	.225	.848	.273	.318	.432	.750

Data notes: home starter Mason Adams: only 51 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Mason Adams: only 50 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections