Seattle Mariners vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

September 20, 2026 · Kade Anderson vs Tomoyuki Sugano · 69°F

7.3% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

66.7%

Colorado Rockies win

33.3%

Fair line (home)

+201

Proj. total

10.36

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 6.22)Colorado Rockies (mean 4.14)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

10.36

Over

36.8%

Under

54.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	66.7%	-154	-201
Colorado Rockies	33.3%	+142	+201

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Kade Anderson LHP · Seattle Mariners	5.0	5.2	5.1	1.2	2.1
Tomoyuki Sugano RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.9	3.3	6.7	1.3	3.5

Strikeout ladder

Kade Anderson4+ 78%6+ 42%8+ 14%

Tomoyuki Sugano4+ 44%6+ 12%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Seattle Mariners — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
J.P. Crawford	5.0	.942	.228	.006	.143	.523	.712	.296	.376	.447	.824
Randy Arozarena	4.9	.850	.251	.009	.229	.406	.879	.306	.383	.525	.907
Dominic Canzone	4.8	.862	.234	.029	.267	.309	.762	.312	.361	.557	.918
Cal Raleigh	4.7	.619	.191	.004	.343	.464	1.028	.276	.354	.570	.924
Julio Rodríguez	4.6	.893	.226	.011	.249	.268	.735	.324	.370	.557	.928
Josh Naylor	4.5	.941	.226	.004	.174	.286	.436	.323	.371	.505	.877
Cole Young	4.4	.844	.197	.036	.138	.285	.540	.303	.359	.473	.832
Lazaro Montes	4.3	.588	.177	.015	.285	.323	1.175	.273	.335	.546	.880
Brock Rodden	4.1	.687	.182	.026	.131	.233	.925	.265	.313	.427	.741

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.6	.857	.181	.074	.106	.248	.815	.284	.333	.436	.769
Connor Norby	4.5	.708	.224	.007	.136	.321	1.219	.261	.322	.418	.740
Hunter Goodman	4.4	.571	.183	.025	.249	.274	1.305	.253	.307	.495	.802
Cole Carrigg	4.3	.691	.183	.043	.104	.239	1.068	.256	.307	.402	.709
Kyle Karros	4.2	.703	.194	.025	.102	.372	.946	.273	.346	.420	.766
Adael Amador	4.1	.657	.162	.016	.100	.323	.715	.252	.317	.384	.701
Brett Sullivan	4.0	.597	.178	.025	.092	.230	.728	.241	.290	.377	.667
Jordan Beck	3.9	.564	.161	.034	.108	.262	1.128	.244	.300	.399	.699
Ezequiel Tovar	3.7	.592	.182	.014	.104	.186	.964	.253	.295	.402	.696

Data notes: away starter Kade Anderson: only 22 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections