Arizona Diamondbacks vs Colorado Rockies — Prediction & Odds

September 24, 2026 · Eduardo Rodriguez vs Tanner Gordon · 68°F

4.1% edge · Colorado Rockies

Arizona Diamondbacks win

59.6%

Colorado Rockies win

40.4%

Fair line (home)

+148

Proj. total

11.23

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Arizona Diamondbacks (mean 6.30)Colorado Rockies (mean 4.93)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

11.23

Over

52.0%

Under

40.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Arizona Diamondbacks	59.6%	-186	-148
Colorado Rockies	40.4%	+170	+148

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Eduardo Rodriguez LHP · Arizona Diamondbacks	5.3	4.5	6.4	1.7	2.9
Tanner Gordon RHP · Colorado Rockies	4.2	2.8	5.7	1.2	2.9

Strikeout ladder

Eduardo Rodriguez4+ 67%6+ 29%8+ 8%

Tanner Gordon4+ 31%6+ 6%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Arizona Diamondbacks — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Lars Nootbaar	5.1	.873	.253	.028	.191	.561	.815	.300	.381	.497	.877
Ketel Marte	5.0	.901	.268	.029	.251	.395	.595	.321	.382	.560	.942
Gabriel Moreno	4.8	1.043	.280	.014	.167	.422	.583	.342	.404	.526	.929
Geraldo Perdomo	4.8	.925	.198	.062	.114	.479	.490	.308	.385	.466	.851
Pavin Smith	4.6	.768	.202	.016	.163	.482	.994	.278	.356	.452	.808
Nolan Arenado	4.5	.807	.211	.013	.218	.292	.620	.297	.348	.510	.858
Corbin Carroll	4.4	.650	.192	.106	.228	.427	.755	.299	.374	.576	.950
James McCann	4.3	.802	.221	.007	.170	.188	.879	.295	.333	.478	.811
Tim Tawa	4.2	.676	.189	.024	.178	.283	.829	.275	.329	.474	.803

Colorado Rockies — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jake McCarthy	4.7	.934	.202	.085	.107	.300	.671	.303	.355	.461	.816
Connor Norby	4.6	.789	.252	.010	.145	.392	1.083	.285	.352	.454	.806
Hunter Goodman	4.5	.625	.204	.027	.276	.317	1.169	.272	.328	.533	.861
TJ Rumfield	4.4	.829	.219	.019	.120	.442	.628	.303	.380	.462	.842
Cole Carrigg	4.3	.780	.195	.042	.110	.269	.895	.283	.336	.436	.772
Kyle Karros	4.2	.754	.209	.031	.108	.428	.789	.296	.374	.456	.830
Brett Sullivan	4.1	.648	.185	.033	.100	.267	.626	.254	.307	.399	.706
Jordan Beck	4.0	.630	.180	.038	.112	.309	1.001	.264	.325	.426	.751
Ezequiel Tovar	3.9	.654	.203	.018	.117	.219	.861	.274	.318	.437	.755

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections