Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers — Prediction & Odds

July 10, 2026 · Aaron Nola vs Jack Flaherty · 84°F

1.1% edge · Detroit Tigers

Philadelphia Phillies win

46.7%

Detroit Tigers win

53.3%

Fair line (home)

-114

Proj. total

8.72

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.28)Detroit Tigers (mean 4.43)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.72

Over

39.6%

Under

50.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	46.7%	+105	+114
Detroit Tigers	53.3%	-114	-114

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trea Turner	4.8	.817	.193	.024	.128	.319	1.024	.261	.317	.402	.718
Kyle Schwarber	4.7	.437	.110	.009	.288	.717	1.496	.215	.343	.468	.812
Bryce Harper	4.6	.614	.189	.013	.207	.622	1.040	.261	.366	.473	.839
Brandon Marsh	4.5	.715	.173	.023	.133	.381	1.302	.257	.324	.408	.732
Alec Bohm	4.4	.728	.187	.014	.116	.307	.727	.260	.320	.401	.720
Bryson Stott	4.3	.698	.150	.030	.095	.371	.764	.252	.322	.380	.702
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	4.2	.504	.146	.008	.117	.404	1.205	.209	.294	.347	.641
Justin Crawford	4.0	.727	.149	.033	.050	.276	.900	.257	.313	.355	.668
Rafael Marchán	3.9	.566	.133	.013	.079	.295	.734	.222	.292	.333	.625

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.6	.800	.222	.041	.107	.517	.647	.290	.374	.445	.820
Colt Keith	4.5	.785	.193	.034	.149	.325	.888	.282	.339	.454	.794
Riley Greene	4.4	.710	.206	.016	.203	.380	1.174	.287	.353	.501	.853
Spencer Torkelson	4.3	.527	.186	.005	.188	.407	1.224	.238	.318	.438	.756
Kerry Carpenter	4.2	.597	.146	.040	.222	.263	1.087	.261	.315	.492	.808
Eduardo Valencia	4.0	.636	.149	.012	.132	.254	.983	.247	.300	.398	.698
Zach McKinstry	3.9	.616	.148	.057	.084	.313	.812	.252	.316	.394	.711
James Outman	3.8	.475	.124	.032	.118	.321	1.335	.217	.292	.374	.665
Jake Rogers	3.7	.464	.126	.024	.129	.293	1.105	.220	.287	.386	.673

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections