Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers — Prediction & Odds

July 12, 2026 · Zack Wheeler vs Tarik Skubal · 84°F

1.9% edge · Detroit Tigers

Philadelphia Phillies win

44.3%

Detroit Tigers win

55.7%

Fair line (home)

-126

Proj. total

7.58

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 3.65)Detroit Tigers (mean 3.93)

O/U line

Proj. total

7.58

Over

39.5%

Under

47.8%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	44.3%	+112	+126
Detroit Tigers	55.7%	-122	-126

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trea Turner	4.6	.779	.182	.021	.111	.226	1.121	.250	.292	.377	.669
Kyle Schwarber	4.5	.438	.108	.010	.253	.515	1.645	.204	.303	.428	.731
Bryce Harper	4.4	.590	.194	.012	.180	.438	1.183	.247	.325	.438	.764
Alec Bohm	4.3	.725	.180	.015	.102	.230	.828	.252	.299	.379	.677
Edmundo Sosa	4.2	.649	.157	.025	.111	.132	1.111	.234	.269	.369	.638
Brandon Marsh	4.1	.634	.163	.020	.107	.279	1.332	.243	.298	.381	.679
Derek Hill	4.0	.556	.135	.014	.090	.185	1.395	.211	.255	.326	.582
J.T. Realmuto	3.9	.552	.151	.013	.096	.211	1.064	.225	.278	.354	.632
Bryson Stott	3.8	.604	.134	.027	.076	.254	.769	.242	.297	.361	.658

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.5	.764	.211	.035	.097	.481	.749	.278	.361	.421	.782
Dillon Dingler	4.4	.659	.192	.020	.147	.243	1.174	.249	.302	.413	.715
Colt Keith	4.3	.706	.165	.029	.121	.307	1.000	.258	.316	.406	.722
Riley Greene	4.2	.638	.182	.015	.165	.351	1.303	.261	.328	.446	.773
Spencer Torkelson	4.1	.480	.168	.006	.162	.383	1.333	.222	.305	.404	.709
Kerry Carpenter	4.0	.550	.139	.038	.179	.237	1.173	.245	.301	.449	.751
Zach McKinstry	3.9	.582	.133	.050	.072	.317	.917	.238	.308	.365	.674
Matt Vierling	3.8	.601	.152	.023	.075	.251	.907	.246	.303	.368	.671
James Outman	3.6	.402	.113	.030	.098	.296	1.391	.196	.273	.338	.611

Data notes: home starter Tarik Skubal: only 66 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections