Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers — Prediction & Odds

July 11, 2026 · Cristopher Sánchez vs Casey Mize · 83°F

2.4% edge · Detroit Tigers

Philadelphia Phillies win

53.8%

Detroit Tigers win

46.2%

Fair line (home)

+116

Proj. total

8.05

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Philadelphia Phillies (mean 4.29)Detroit Tigers (mean 3.76)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.05

Over

45.3%

Under

54.7%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Philadelphia Phillies	53.8%	-134	-116
Detroit Tigers	46.2%	+124	+116

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trea Turner	4.8	.857	.208	.020	.124	.260	.924	.270	.316	.409	.725
Kyle Schwarber	4.7	.497	.122	.010	.294	.604	1.414	.230	.336	.485	.822
Bryce Harper	4.5	.639	.212	.012	.207	.526	.968	.268	.357	.482	.839
Brandon Marsh	4.4	.751	.191	.026	.124	.328	1.211	.266	.323	.416	.740
Alec Bohm	4.3	.775	.190	.016	.108	.252	.657	.269	.318	.404	.722
Bryson Stott	4.2	.699	.157	.030	.092	.313	.704	.252	.312	.379	.691
J.T. Realmuto	4.1	.627	.172	.011	.120	.233	.950	.243	.294	.387	.682
Gabriel Rincones Jr.	4.0	.522	.146	.008	.112	.335	1.086	.217	.290	.354	.643
Derek Hill	3.9	.591	.136	.012	.098	.215	1.178	.230	.279	.355	.634

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Matt Vierling	4.5	.781	.195	.030	.077	.277	1.029	.255	.305	.370	.675
Kevin McGonigle	4.4	.796	.216	.035	.079	.465	.676	.286	.366	.419	.785
Dillon Dingler	4.3	.712	.207	.025	.122	.227	1.052	.263	.310	.416	.726
Spencer Torkelson	4.2	.546	.190	.006	.127	.383	1.284	.228	.306	.381	.687
Riley Greene	4.1	.689	.201	.019	.125	.336	1.196	.275	.338	.438	.776
Eduardo Valencia	4.0	.649	.157	.014	.092	.233	1.032	.243	.293	.365	.658
Hao-Yu Lee	3.9	.643	.153	.029	.065	.225	.975	.244	.294	.355	.649
Ben Malgeri	3.8	.579	.175	.025	.054	.251	1.148	.237	.294	.348	.643
Zach McKinstry	3.7	.578	.128	.053	.054	.278	.790	.242	.305	.359	.664

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections